Today is the seventh anniversary of the Royals hiring Dayton Moore as the club's general manager. The Royals are 21-29 as I write this and on their way to 21-30. They've sunk all the way to last place in the Central Division — common hangout for the Royals during Moore's tenure. In less than a month, Kansas City has gone from first to last. How quickly reality sets in.
As penance for the Royals' futility, heads are starting to roll. That is to say, heads have rolled in much the same fashion as Eric Hosmer's swings roll grounders meekly to the right side of the infield. Dayton Moore was not fired today. Manager Ned Yost was not fired today. No notable scouting or development personnel were dismissed today. Instead, it was announced today that George Brett would serve as interim hitting coach with the assistance of Pedro Grifol. The former dynamic hitting coach duo of Jack Maloof and Andre David were not fired today. They were instead reassigned to spread their expertise elsewhere within the organization.
And when I say, "expertise," I mean such insight as what Maloof shared with Fox Sports, blaming Kauffman Stadium for the team's lack of home runs. Not only did he blame the stadium for his hitters' impotence at the plate, he rationalized that there simply wasn't enough incentive at the K for Royals hitters to even try hitting home runs at home. It makes about as much sense as Mariners manager Eric Wedge scapegoating sabermetricians for Dustin Ackley's poor performance.
In reality, the Royals' 11 home runs in 24 home games compared to 17 home runs in 26 road games does not explain away how, say, a team such as the Oakland Athletics have hit 19 home runs in 25 games at their cavernous home ballpark (I'd write the A's stadium name if I had any confidence it would still be intact by the time I publish this post) versus 34 home runs in 29 road games. If a team such as Oakland, devoid of a single player with double-digit home runs, can manage as many home runs as it has given its situation (the A's play in a division that includes Angels Stadium and Safeco Field, which are hardly hitter friendly), the Royals have to do better than the excuses Maloof verbalized.
Maloof was the scapegoat on Thursday. It doesn't change the fact his statements were most certainly a peephole into the mad inner workings of the Royals front office and coaching staff. Maloof may be the only Royals buffoon foolish enough to openly accuse Kauffman Stadium for the Royals' limp power numbers, but what are the odds he is a rogue lackey? Slim.
Perhaps Yost, befuddled that forcing out Kevin Seitzer wasn't an instant cure-all, has been grumbling about Kauffman being the culprit. If I were to learn Maloof was simply regurgitating the opinions of Dayton Moore himself, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.
Why reprimand Maloof if those are Moore's views? Why was captain Francesco Schettino the first to abandon his sinking cruise ship? Why do mob bosses start eliminating their own henchmen when authorities come closing in? Simple. Self-preservation.
Dayton Moore is merely setting up defenses. Maloof and David were sacrificed this week. Once the June amateur draft is complete, don't be surprised if some scouting personnel take the fall. Minor league coaches partially responsible for the lack of development by players in the organization must be on thin ice. By the All-Star Break, the pressure will intensify to the point Moore will have to part with partner-in-crime Yost.
But all this cleaning house will be done in an effort to preserve Moore's place in Kansas City. Nothing will change as Moore will simply replace one sabermetrically-deficient minion with another and blame them when nothing changes. The addition of George Brett to the coaching staff was nothing but a glorified publicity stunt. A move meant to make fans revert to their adolescent years and remember the Kansas City icon and Hall of Famer in his heyday and take attention away from the mockery that has become his former club.
How ironic that the teams Brett once played on used Kauffman Stadium to their advantage. Now he's working for an organization that uses the park as an excuse for mediocrity. No real progress can be made until the head of the beast is removed.
Fire Dayton Moore
(click to sign our petition to bring forward-thinking back to Kansas City)
Fire Dayton Moore

It's time.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Petition
It's time to take action.
FireDaytonMoore.com has officially started a petition urging Royals owner David Glass to fire Dayton Moore.
Here's what the petition states:
General manager Dayton Moore and his staff have had seven-plus years to build the Royals into contenders, and despite improved resources and too much patience from fans, they have failed. With a disregard for advanced metrics and inability to develop Major League talent, Moore and his staff have not even produced modest results in a time frame where many other organizations have successfully rebuilt themselves into perennial contenders.
It's time for a change, Mr. Glass. Dayton Moore needs to be replaced. Seven years of "The Process" is enough.
We've seen the power of the Save Our Chiefs movement just a few months ago, which united frustrated fans to make a statement that eventually helped lead to the firing of general manager Scott Pioli.
Voices can't be heard if we stay silent. Sign the petition above, and let Royals owner David Glass know that "The Process" has run its course.
FireDaytonMoore.com has officially started a petition urging Royals owner David Glass to fire Dayton Moore.
Here's what the petition states:
General manager Dayton Moore and his staff have had seven-plus years to build the Royals into contenders, and despite improved resources and too much patience from fans, they have failed. With a disregard for advanced metrics and inability to develop Major League talent, Moore and his staff have not even produced modest results in a time frame where many other organizations have successfully rebuilt themselves into perennial contenders.
It's time for a change, Mr. Glass. Dayton Moore needs to be replaced. Seven years of "The Process" is enough.
We've seen the power of the Save Our Chiefs movement just a few months ago, which united frustrated fans to make a statement that eventually helped lead to the firing of general manager Scott Pioli.
Voices can't be heard if we stay silent. Sign the petition above, and let Royals owner David Glass know that "The Process" has run its course.
Sunday, May 26, 2013
"Sour Time"
I didn't want to write this post.
Despite the name of this blog, in my heart of hearts, I wanted to take a four-month hiatus and come back in September and simply write: "I was wrong." As little as a week ago I had plans of writing a, "Sure things are bad, but here's a silver lining..." post. That's not happening.
I know there are still Dayton Moore defenders out there. I don't know how they manage to get their cereal poured into their bowls in the morning, let alone the milk.
The Royals are not a good baseball team. After managing to keep their heads above water during a challenging April schedule, they're now 5 games below .500 despite just completing the most lenient 13-game stretch of games they could have asked for. They won't see the plus side of .500 again until 2014. Hopefully. The Royals are a fourth place team, as I predicted in March, and they'll likely finish pitifully behind third-place Chicago, an aged team well past its prime. The Royals are not a good baseball team. There is no immediate help primed and ready on the farm. Dayton Moore is to blame.
He almost got me
If you're reading this, you're likely a Royals fan. One who understands a special form of hope. So when I read a week ago about the Royals being the frontrunners to sign possibly the best baseball talent Europe has ever produced, Marten Gasparini, I felt a twinge of that special kind of hope.
During Moore's reign as Royals GM he's done an admirable job unearthing talent. Or at least that's what I thought.
To Moore's credit, and with the support of David Glass, he beefed up the Royals scouting, spending and developing in Latin America. Perhaps the most notable signing was Cuban pitcher Noel Arguelles, who cost the Royals $7 million over five years. At the moment has a 6.07 ERA, 4.6 K/9 rate and 6.9 BB/9 rate in Double-A at age 23. He will never sniff Kansas City.
Moore has dipped his toes in Japan, notably signing Yasuhiko Yabuta to a two-year, $5.5 million deal that saw him post a 7.14 ERA in 43 appearances as a Royal. He was washed up before he stepped foot in Kansas City.
Given the Royals' futility, Moore has had the opportunity time and time again to show off his keen eye for amateur talent in the draft. In seven* drafts, Moore has drafted Luke Hochevar (2006), Mike Moustakas (2007), Eric Hosmer (2008), Aaron Crow (2009), Christian Colon (2010), Bubba Starling (2011) and Kyle Zimmer (2012) in the first round.
*I've said it once, I'll say it again: Moore was either incredibly irresponsible in not having a say in the Hochevar pick, letting someone else decide on the No. 1 pick for a franchise he'd just been hired to run, or sorely incompetent in selecting Hochevar on his own while the Royals protected him from having any responsibility for the pick.
For those of you scoring at home, that's two failed starting pitchers now serving as middle relievers. That's two corner infielders who have combined for five home runs this season and a 1.223 OPS if you add both of theirs together. Miguel Cabrera has 14 home runs and a 1.141 OPS by himself thus far. That's a second baseman (drafted as a shortstop) who, despite having the good sense to sign right away and begin his pro career, has just now become a full-time player at Triple-A at age 24 and he isn't close to beating out Chris Getz** any time soon. That's an outfielder who at this point has a better shot of starting at quarterback for Nebraska than reaching Double-A. And that's a pitcher who is all but doomed to fall prey to the Royals' shoddy pitching development.
**More on Getz later.
Meanwhile, with the advantage of hindsight, the Royals could have instead drafted Evan Longoria/Clayton Kershaw/Tim Lincecum/Max Scherzer (2006), Matt Wieters/Madison Bumgarner/Jason Heyward (2007), Buster Posey (2008), Shelby Miller/Kyle Gibson/MIKE TROUT/Nick Franklin/Tyler Skaggs (2009), Matt Harvey/Chris Sale/Christian Yelich (2010) and Archie Bradley/Francisco Lindor/Javier Baez/Jose Fernandez (2011)***. I'll reserve judgement on last year's draft for now. Of course, all of this supposes the Royals actually could have developed the players on this list similar to the teams that actually drafted them. A leap of faith if there ever was one.
***2011 was an insanely stacked draft. In retrospect, the Royals didn't need to take a project like Starling with so many seemingly can't-miss prospects.
Ned's dead, baby
At this point, I bet Ned Yost doesn't even know why he's still a Major League manager. Now that I think about it, any organization that thinks it's a good idea to hire a guy who was fired amid a pennant race as their manager might be lacking some essential decision-making abilities.
I don't want to spend too much time on Ned because it's blatantly clear to anyone whose ever touched the laces of a baseball that he's clueless even when it comes to the very few things a manager can do to impact a baseball game. But his latest blunder is his blind, irrational belief that Chris Getz belongs anywhere near the top of a batting order.
Look, I don't think batting order makes much difference on overall run production over the course of a season. Especially on a team that doesn't hit home runs. The Royals are going to have to manufacture runs one way or another, so the order in which their hitters string together singles and doubles (because lord knows they don't draw walks) doesn't really matter. A leadoff hitter is really only guaranteed to lead off an inning once a game.
But I do believe a manager should use a batting order to get his best hitters the most at bats possible. In less than a month, Yost has gone from having his best hitter lead off to having his absolute worst hitter atop the lineup.
Yes, in theory it's a wonderful idea to hope a starting pitcher experiences temporary Parkinson's disease for eight pitches and walks Getz and Alcides Escobar to set the table for Gordon. In reality, Getz's .265 OBP and Escobar's .283 OBP means basically in three out of their four trips to the plate in a given game, they won't be reaching base ahead of Gordon. It means, at best, Gordon will get as many plate appearances at Getz and Escobar, but never more, unless you pinch hit for your one- or two-hole hitters, of course.
It means, once opposing pitchers reach the bottom of the Royals' lineup, they have the advantage of knowing it gets easier when they get to the top of the order, so Gordon will likely have to ignite a two-out rally or lead off an inning with nobody on, just an inning later. It means, Yost is banking on Getz and Escobar synchronizing their one hit for the day to give Gordon RBI opportunities. It means Yost lacks even a basic understanding of rudimentary statistics, let alone advanced statistics.
I know Yost can only do so much with the players he's given to work with at second base, right field and in the bullpen, but he doesn't have to make a mockery of the Royals lineup. And from what I've heard, Yost and Moore are like this (imagine me interlocking my middle and index fingers tightly).
You are the company you keep and Moore's relationship with Yost is yet another red flag on his resumé. But I'm not too concerned about Moore firing Yost because I have no faith he'll find a better manager to replace him. No faith whatsoever.
No self-awareness
The Royals received their fair share of criticism last year for their "Our Time" campaign. But seeing how the All-Star Game was in Kansas City, I can see how it made sense. A better phrase probably could have been conjured, but in the grand scheme of things, it was a small misstep. Far less offensive than this portion of Royals broadcasting history, to be sure:
But when Moore shipped of Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard for James Shields, Wade Davis and a bag of balls in the form of Elliot Johnson, that was Moore's way of signifying this is "Our Time" from the Royals' perspective.
I am a devoted listener to all of Baseball Prospectus' podcasts and I highly respect Jason Parks' opinions, so it was with great pain I heard him defend the Shields trade on last week's episode. And I see where he's coming from. Myers isn't lighting the world on fire. Odorizzi will never be a top of the rotation arm. Montgomery and Leonard will probably never have their cups of coffee.
However, Davis is likely just an older, more expensive version of Odorizzi and Johnson's cup of coffee is just about empty. So that just leaves Shields, who will be leaving after the 2014 season. He's pitched great through 10 starts, far exceeding my expectations based on his career splits. But the season is already lost. What difference is Shields going to make that he hasn't already? He's just a big fish in a small pond now.
Maybe Myers will never reach his potential. Maybe Shields will be part of a winning club in 2014. Or maybe Moore or whoever replaces him will be able to deal Shields for a young right fielder/second baseman. But I'm not holding my breath.
There's only one post I want to write at this point. Tic, tic, tic...
Fire Dayton Moore
Despite the name of this blog, in my heart of hearts, I wanted to take a four-month hiatus and come back in September and simply write: "I was wrong." As little as a week ago I had plans of writing a, "Sure things are bad, but here's a silver lining..." post. That's not happening.
I know there are still Dayton Moore defenders out there. I don't know how they manage to get their cereal poured into their bowls in the morning, let alone the milk.
The Royals are not a good baseball team. After managing to keep their heads above water during a challenging April schedule, they're now 5 games below .500 despite just completing the most lenient 13-game stretch of games they could have asked for. They won't see the plus side of .500 again until 2014. Hopefully. The Royals are a fourth place team, as I predicted in March, and they'll likely finish pitifully behind third-place Chicago, an aged team well past its prime. The Royals are not a good baseball team. There is no immediate help primed and ready on the farm. Dayton Moore is to blame.
He almost got me
If you're reading this, you're likely a Royals fan. One who understands a special form of hope. So when I read a week ago about the Royals being the frontrunners to sign possibly the best baseball talent Europe has ever produced, Marten Gasparini, I felt a twinge of that special kind of hope.
During Moore's reign as Royals GM he's done an admirable job unearthing talent. Or at least that's what I thought.
To Moore's credit, and with the support of David Glass, he beefed up the Royals scouting, spending and developing in Latin America. Perhaps the most notable signing was Cuban pitcher Noel Arguelles, who cost the Royals $7 million over five years. At the moment has a 6.07 ERA, 4.6 K/9 rate and 6.9 BB/9 rate in Double-A at age 23. He will never sniff Kansas City.
Moore has dipped his toes in Japan, notably signing Yasuhiko Yabuta to a two-year, $5.5 million deal that saw him post a 7.14 ERA in 43 appearances as a Royal. He was washed up before he stepped foot in Kansas City.
Given the Royals' futility, Moore has had the opportunity time and time again to show off his keen eye for amateur talent in the draft. In seven* drafts, Moore has drafted Luke Hochevar (2006), Mike Moustakas (2007), Eric Hosmer (2008), Aaron Crow (2009), Christian Colon (2010), Bubba Starling (2011) and Kyle Zimmer (2012) in the first round.
*I've said it once, I'll say it again: Moore was either incredibly irresponsible in not having a say in the Hochevar pick, letting someone else decide on the No. 1 pick for a franchise he'd just been hired to run, or sorely incompetent in selecting Hochevar on his own while the Royals protected him from having any responsibility for the pick.
For those of you scoring at home, that's two failed starting pitchers now serving as middle relievers. That's two corner infielders who have combined for five home runs this season and a 1.223 OPS if you add both of theirs together. Miguel Cabrera has 14 home runs and a 1.141 OPS by himself thus far. That's a second baseman (drafted as a shortstop) who, despite having the good sense to sign right away and begin his pro career, has just now become a full-time player at Triple-A at age 24 and he isn't close to beating out Chris Getz** any time soon. That's an outfielder who at this point has a better shot of starting at quarterback for Nebraska than reaching Double-A. And that's a pitcher who is all but doomed to fall prey to the Royals' shoddy pitching development.
**More on Getz later.
Meanwhile, with the advantage of hindsight, the Royals could have instead drafted Evan Longoria/Clayton Kershaw/Tim Lincecum/Max Scherzer (2006), Matt Wieters/Madison Bumgarner/Jason Heyward (2007), Buster Posey (2008), Shelby Miller/Kyle Gibson/MIKE TROUT/Nick Franklin/Tyler Skaggs (2009), Matt Harvey/Chris Sale/Christian Yelich (2010) and Archie Bradley/Francisco Lindor/Javier Baez/Jose Fernandez (2011)***. I'll reserve judgement on last year's draft for now. Of course, all of this supposes the Royals actually could have developed the players on this list similar to the teams that actually drafted them. A leap of faith if there ever was one.
***2011 was an insanely stacked draft. In retrospect, the Royals didn't need to take a project like Starling with so many seemingly can't-miss prospects.
Ned's dead, baby
At this point, I bet Ned Yost doesn't even know why he's still a Major League manager. Now that I think about it, any organization that thinks it's a good idea to hire a guy who was fired amid a pennant race as their manager might be lacking some essential decision-making abilities.
I don't want to spend too much time on Ned because it's blatantly clear to anyone whose ever touched the laces of a baseball that he's clueless even when it comes to the very few things a manager can do to impact a baseball game. But his latest blunder is his blind, irrational belief that Chris Getz belongs anywhere near the top of a batting order.
Look, I don't think batting order makes much difference on overall run production over the course of a season. Especially on a team that doesn't hit home runs. The Royals are going to have to manufacture runs one way or another, so the order in which their hitters string together singles and doubles (because lord knows they don't draw walks) doesn't really matter. A leadoff hitter is really only guaranteed to lead off an inning once a game.
But I do believe a manager should use a batting order to get his best hitters the most at bats possible. In less than a month, Yost has gone from having his best hitter lead off to having his absolute worst hitter atop the lineup.
Yes, in theory it's a wonderful idea to hope a starting pitcher experiences temporary Parkinson's disease for eight pitches and walks Getz and Alcides Escobar to set the table for Gordon. In reality, Getz's .265 OBP and Escobar's .283 OBP means basically in three out of their four trips to the plate in a given game, they won't be reaching base ahead of Gordon. It means, at best, Gordon will get as many plate appearances at Getz and Escobar, but never more, unless you pinch hit for your one- or two-hole hitters, of course.
It means, once opposing pitchers reach the bottom of the Royals' lineup, they have the advantage of knowing it gets easier when they get to the top of the order, so Gordon will likely have to ignite a two-out rally or lead off an inning with nobody on, just an inning later. It means, Yost is banking on Getz and Escobar synchronizing their one hit for the day to give Gordon RBI opportunities. It means Yost lacks even a basic understanding of rudimentary statistics, let alone advanced statistics.
I know Yost can only do so much with the players he's given to work with at second base, right field and in the bullpen, but he doesn't have to make a mockery of the Royals lineup. And from what I've heard, Yost and Moore are like this (imagine me interlocking my middle and index fingers tightly).
You are the company you keep and Moore's relationship with Yost is yet another red flag on his resumé. But I'm not too concerned about Moore firing Yost because I have no faith he'll find a better manager to replace him. No faith whatsoever.
No self-awareness
The Royals received their fair share of criticism last year for their "Our Time" campaign. But seeing how the All-Star Game was in Kansas City, I can see how it made sense. A better phrase probably could have been conjured, but in the grand scheme of things, it was a small misstep. Far less offensive than this portion of Royals broadcasting history, to be sure:
But when Moore shipped of Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard for James Shields, Wade Davis and a bag of balls in the form of Elliot Johnson, that was Moore's way of signifying this is "Our Time" from the Royals' perspective.
I am a devoted listener to all of Baseball Prospectus' podcasts and I highly respect Jason Parks' opinions, so it was with great pain I heard him defend the Shields trade on last week's episode. And I see where he's coming from. Myers isn't lighting the world on fire. Odorizzi will never be a top of the rotation arm. Montgomery and Leonard will probably never have their cups of coffee.
However, Davis is likely just an older, more expensive version of Odorizzi and Johnson's cup of coffee is just about empty. So that just leaves Shields, who will be leaving after the 2014 season. He's pitched great through 10 starts, far exceeding my expectations based on his career splits. But the season is already lost. What difference is Shields going to make that he hasn't already? He's just a big fish in a small pond now.
Maybe Myers will never reach his potential. Maybe Shields will be part of a winning club in 2014. Or maybe Moore or whoever replaces him will be able to deal Shields for a young right fielder/second baseman. But I'm not holding my breath.
There's only one post I want to write at this point. Tic, tic, tic...
Fire Dayton Moore
Friday, May 10, 2013
Royals' season in a nutshell...
Ned Yost "shakes up the lineup." Yost slots player with third lowest OBP in the starting lineup in the leadoff spot. Player goes 0-for-5. Royals still win. An 18-13 start is fantastic, but this carriage is turning into a pumpkin and Yost will no doubt speed the process.
Fire Dayton Moore
Fire Dayton Moore
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Don't stop now
At my job, there are basically two Royals "fans" in the entire building. I say "fans" for a couple reasons. Sure there are other people who like to hear when the Royals have won. But there are only two who had their phones out for instant updates from today's game in Detroit. I also say "fans" because I'm just too stupid to follow another team while my co-worker has probably never considered following another team.
He's old school. I lean new school. I was feeling pretty good about myself when I started writing for this blog. When he found out about it, he went off on me. And it was an awkward couple months after that. But when the Royals set out for their road trip which concluded this afternoon, we were both in agreement that a .500 record against Atlanta, Boston and Detroit would be an absolute positive. I don't know if either of us actually expected it to happen.
The Braves were the hottest team in baseball. The Red Sox were one of the hottest teams in the American League. Detroit was the unquestioned favorite in the AL Central. Somehow, someway — despite interruptions from national tragedy and poor weather — the Royals return home Friday at 11-8 overall following a 4-3 showing on the trip.
What does it mean? Well, it's not yet May, so not a whole lot. Minnesota is second in the Central as I write this. What do I think it means? Well, maybe the Royals aren't as far from winning as I thought. I'm not convinced of that just yet. But there's no debating that the Royals are in first place and have proven they're at least capable of playing competent baseball this season.
However, if you're Dayton Moore — and odds are you're not — you've already made your stance known. You've announced that the Royals have entered their window for winning. You've shipped off your best prospect. You've committed millions of dollars to players who probably won't be on the team in 2015 and, if they are, won't be major contributors. So, for now, Moore can pat himself on the back. But he can't put the club on auto-pilot just yet.
The Royals are still a player or two away from being serious contenders. I've already made my thoughts clear on what the Royals should do about Giancarlo Stanton. Very clear. But listening to ESPN's Baseball Tonight Podcast, Buster Olney and Tim Kurkjian discussed a trade possibility I can't believe I didn't come up with first.
Due to what can only be diagnosed as a complete lack of comprehension when it comes to statistical analysis, the Philadelphia Phillies are not a good team. They don't have many trade pieces remaining to start rebuilding. But they do have one that makes a ton of sense to unload: Chase Utley.
He's in the last year of his contract, he's 34 years old and has an injury history that could make him worthless if the Phils don't trade him while he's healthy. But he's still productive and plays a position almost every team could use an upgrade at as a second baseman. If the Phillies were willing to eat a majority of the $15 million he's due this season, there's no reason they shouldn't be able to get back an elite prospect or a solid package of prospects. Maybe both.
Olney and Kurkjian first mentioned the Orioles as a perfect fit for Utley. I can't argue with that. He'd look great in that lineup and I'm sure he'd enjoy not having to move far from Philly. The only question is what the Orioles can offer other than Dylan Bundy, who I doubt they'd let go of for Utley no matter how much money the Phillies took on, and Kevin Gausman, who some say the organization likes even more than Bundy even if he's not as highly rated.
The other team they mentioned was...drumroll...the Kansas City Royals. I'm not sure what reasons they might have to doubt Chris Getz or Johnny Giavotella. Other than the fact Getz had more homes runs (1) than walks until he walked on Wednesday, which explains his .241 OBP. And other than the fact the Royals clearly have no faith in Giavotella (and neither do I). All that aside, I'm not sure how they reached such a conclusion.
All sarcasm aside, it makes a ton of sense. For one, Utley is actually a realistic replacement at a position of need for the Royals. Stanton probably isn't going anywhere. I don't know where the Royals are going to find another third baseman if Mike Moustakas can't get his act together. But unless Utley simply doesn't want to go anywhere, there's no reason he shouldn't be available.
And as much as Moore talks about adding veterans with the right clubhouse presence, Utley makes a ton of sense. He's won a World Series. He's finished as high as seventh in the MVP voting. He's a pro's pro. And even though Alex Gordon of all people should be able to relate to Moustakas and see him through his struggles, there's little doubt Utley could be a positive influence on Moustakas. And Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar for that matter.
On the Royals' end, they have just as much to offer in the form of prospects as the Orioles. If the Phillies' want elite prospects, they're better off dealing with the Orioles (assuming the Orioles are willing to part ways with Bundy or Gausman). If the Phillies want a package of prospects, the Royals are the better fit. The Royals haven't ruined Kyle Zimmer or Yordano Ventura (yet) and players like Jorge Bonifacio, Sam Selman, Orlando Calixte and Jason Adam should also be available. I would hold onto Adalberto Mondesi unless the Marlins come calling about Stanton. I wouldn't give up all of the players above for Utley, but Zimmer or Ventura plus another piece or three lower ranked players would be a fine package, depending on how much money the Phillies would be willing to take on.
If there's one thing I can think of that might rule the Royals out of an Utley deal, it's money. If the Phillies aren't willing to eat much or any of Utley's $15 million, I'm not sure how much more cash David Glass can make available. And if that's what happens and Utley winds up in Baltimore as a result, the mistake in paying Luke Hochevar $4.56 million this season will become all the more glaring.
Fire Dayton Moore
He's old school. I lean new school. I was feeling pretty good about myself when I started writing for this blog. When he found out about it, he went off on me. And it was an awkward couple months after that. But when the Royals set out for their road trip which concluded this afternoon, we were both in agreement that a .500 record against Atlanta, Boston and Detroit would be an absolute positive. I don't know if either of us actually expected it to happen.
The Braves were the hottest team in baseball. The Red Sox were one of the hottest teams in the American League. Detroit was the unquestioned favorite in the AL Central. Somehow, someway — despite interruptions from national tragedy and poor weather — the Royals return home Friday at 11-8 overall following a 4-3 showing on the trip.
What does it mean? Well, it's not yet May, so not a whole lot. Minnesota is second in the Central as I write this. What do I think it means? Well, maybe the Royals aren't as far from winning as I thought. I'm not convinced of that just yet. But there's no debating that the Royals are in first place and have proven they're at least capable of playing competent baseball this season.
However, if you're Dayton Moore — and odds are you're not — you've already made your stance known. You've announced that the Royals have entered their window for winning. You've shipped off your best prospect. You've committed millions of dollars to players who probably won't be on the team in 2015 and, if they are, won't be major contributors. So, for now, Moore can pat himself on the back. But he can't put the club on auto-pilot just yet.
The Royals are still a player or two away from being serious contenders. I've already made my thoughts clear on what the Royals should do about Giancarlo Stanton. Very clear. But listening to ESPN's Baseball Tonight Podcast, Buster Olney and Tim Kurkjian discussed a trade possibility I can't believe I didn't come up with first.
Due to what can only be diagnosed as a complete lack of comprehension when it comes to statistical analysis, the Philadelphia Phillies are not a good team. They don't have many trade pieces remaining to start rebuilding. But they do have one that makes a ton of sense to unload: Chase Utley.
He's in the last year of his contract, he's 34 years old and has an injury history that could make him worthless if the Phils don't trade him while he's healthy. But he's still productive and plays a position almost every team could use an upgrade at as a second baseman. If the Phillies were willing to eat a majority of the $15 million he's due this season, there's no reason they shouldn't be able to get back an elite prospect or a solid package of prospects. Maybe both.
Olney and Kurkjian first mentioned the Orioles as a perfect fit for Utley. I can't argue with that. He'd look great in that lineup and I'm sure he'd enjoy not having to move far from Philly. The only question is what the Orioles can offer other than Dylan Bundy, who I doubt they'd let go of for Utley no matter how much money the Phillies took on, and Kevin Gausman, who some say the organization likes even more than Bundy even if he's not as highly rated.
The other team they mentioned was...drumroll...the Kansas City Royals. I'm not sure what reasons they might have to doubt Chris Getz or Johnny Giavotella. Other than the fact Getz had more homes runs (1) than walks until he walked on Wednesday, which explains his .241 OBP. And other than the fact the Royals clearly have no faith in Giavotella (and neither do I). All that aside, I'm not sure how they reached such a conclusion.
All sarcasm aside, it makes a ton of sense. For one, Utley is actually a realistic replacement at a position of need for the Royals. Stanton probably isn't going anywhere. I don't know where the Royals are going to find another third baseman if Mike Moustakas can't get his act together. But unless Utley simply doesn't want to go anywhere, there's no reason he shouldn't be available.
And as much as Moore talks about adding veterans with the right clubhouse presence, Utley makes a ton of sense. He's won a World Series. He's finished as high as seventh in the MVP voting. He's a pro's pro. And even though Alex Gordon of all people should be able to relate to Moustakas and see him through his struggles, there's little doubt Utley could be a positive influence on Moustakas. And Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar for that matter.
On the Royals' end, they have just as much to offer in the form of prospects as the Orioles. If the Phillies' want elite prospects, they're better off dealing with the Orioles (assuming the Orioles are willing to part ways with Bundy or Gausman). If the Phillies want a package of prospects, the Royals are the better fit. The Royals haven't ruined Kyle Zimmer or Yordano Ventura (yet) and players like Jorge Bonifacio, Sam Selman, Orlando Calixte and Jason Adam should also be available. I would hold onto Adalberto Mondesi unless the Marlins come calling about Stanton. I wouldn't give up all of the players above for Utley, but Zimmer or Ventura plus another piece or three lower ranked players would be a fine package, depending on how much money the Phillies would be willing to take on.
If there's one thing I can think of that might rule the Royals out of an Utley deal, it's money. If the Phillies aren't willing to eat much or any of Utley's $15 million, I'm not sure how much more cash David Glass can make available. And if that's what happens and Utley winds up in Baltimore as a result, the mistake in paying Luke Hochevar $4.56 million this season will become all the more glaring.
Fire Dayton Moore
Sunday, April 21, 2013
The Braves Way
In the last couple years my go-to Dayton Moore joke has been, if a player on his way out of baseball wants to extend his career, sign a one-day contract with the Atlanta Braves. Then after it expires, show Moore he was once employed by the Braves and Moore will be powerless to resist signing him.
Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies, Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera and whoever else I've forgotten that Moore has imported from Atlanta, are proof that Moore hasn't forgotten his roots coming up through the ranks with the Braves. So when the Royals played the Braves this week, I got the idea of comparing the Braves dynasty that Moore was a part of to Moore's Royals — at least in one aspect.
I thought to myself, "Gee, the Royals don't seem to have much pop and they sure don't seem to walk all that often, either." OK, my inner thoughts aren't actually that eloquent. But it got me to wondering how the Royals under Moore's direction compare offensively to the Braves during Moore's time with the organization.
Now, I fully understand Moore himself can only do so much when it comes to affecting the performance of the players on the field. With the Braves, it was even more limited. At the same time, Moore was a scout, director of player personel and Assistant GM with the Braves and therefore had a voice in the players the Braves sought to fit their philosophy.
The result was 11 division championships, three World Series appearances and a World Series title between joining the organization in 1994 and leaving in 2006. So I hopped over to Fangraphs and filtered the team stats from 1995-2005 because those were the years Moore spent entire seasons with the organization.
The results: 2,064 home runs (9), 9.0 percent walk rate (12), 16.7 percent strikeout rate (17), .267 batting average (13), .338 on-base percentage (12), .432 slugging percentage (8), and .335 weighted on-base average (10). In parenthesis are the Braves' rank in all of baseball in those categories during that span.
Now, from 2007 to this point in the 2013 season, here's how the Royals compare: 753 home runs (29), 7.0 percent walk rate (30), 16.5 percent strikeout rate (28), .267 batting average (7), .323 on-base percentage (22), .400 slugging percentage (21), and .317 weighted on-base average (22). Again, the parenthesis signify the club's rank in all of baseball.
Looking at that, it's as if Moore came to Kansas City straight out of the early 1900s. Swing away, get on base with a seeing-eye single and hope to bunt and steal your way around the bases. It's not hard to see why the Royals have yet to compete with Moore as GM. Although hitting for power and finding ways to get on base were clearly part of the Braves' formula for winning, Moore's Royals have solely excelled in hitting for average.
Yes I realize the David Glass Royals haven't had the same funds that the Ted Turner Braves once worked with. But anyone with a vague understanding of "Moneyball" knows players with a knack for getting on base and platoon power hitters are available at reasonable prices if you know where to find them.
Even if you isolate the Royals' ranks in those statistics to this season, it's not pretty: 6 home runs (29), 5.8 percent walk rate (29), 16.3 percent strikeout rate (29), .267 batting average (5), .314 on-base percentage (18), .381 slugging percentage (20), and .304 weighted on-base average (20).
Again, their strength lies only in getting on base by way of hits. But as I write this, roughly a handful of individual players have as many or more home runs this season than the Royals do as a team. Justin Upton, who the Royals theoretically could have landed for a package even less lucrative than the one that brought in James Shields, has already launched nine long balls.
These are the reasons I have no faith in this year's club sustaining its success. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and a surging Lorenzo Cain can't be the only Royals contributing in both on-base and slugging. After last season, Kevin Seitzer was the scapegoat for the Royals' lack of power. Who will the blame fall on when these numbers extrapolate over the course of a season?
As far as I'm concerned, Moore may not be the one scouting amateur talent, developing that talent in the minor leagues or even coaching that talent at the Major League level. But he is the one deciding which amateur players to bring into the organization. He is the one deciding which ones to move along through the system and which ones he doesn't have to "cross off the board" in trade negotiations. And he is the one signing players at the Major League level to free agent deals and extensions and hand-picking coaches to instruct them.
I don't think anyone in Kansas City is expecting Moore to build a dynasty to last 15 seasons. But if the Royals truly are entering a so-called "window" for winning, it's going to take more than a change at hitting coach. A 3-2 start to a daunting road trip is indeed encouraging, but if some trends don't begin to reverse soon, it might be time to find realistic alternatives in right field and at third base. And that's on Moore.
If only there were a player waiting in the wings at Triple-A with experience at both positions.
Fire Dayton Moore
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Not exactly easy listening Pt. VII
If you haven't taken the time to listen to any of the podcast episodes I've posted, at the very least, check out Friday's (4/19) episode of Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney.
Olney's first guest on the show was none other than Royals GM Dayton Moore, not to be confused with Daynot Moore. Olney touches on the obvious (an overview of the negotiations between Moore and Rays GM Andrew Friedman, the decision to give up Wil Myers, what Moore sees in Eric Hosmer, and so on). Moore answers the only way he knows how — like a politician.
However, it was Olney who had me shaking my head in disbelief during the interview. At a certain point, Olney asks Moore about his "best kept secrets in baseball." Just who are these secrets Olney was referring to? Alex Gordon and Billy Butler? No. Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura? Nope. Kauffman Stadium and Arthur Bryant's? Nah. It was obviously the Royals' bullpen.
The same bullpen anchored by Greg Holland and his 9.00 ERA, 3.56 FIP and 4.26 xFIP to go with a .294 BAA and 2.75 WHIP. The same bullpen that in a single week submarined the entire team thanks in part to Kelvin Herrera's four home runs allowed. Just days after seemingly surpassing Holland for the closer role, Herrera boasts a 7.36 ERA and 8.10 FIP. And the same bullpen that includes J.C. Gutierrez.
True, Bruce Chen, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins and amazingly Luke Hochevar have been admirable in middle relief. But to a man, almost every Royals reliever has wilted in high-leverage situations, including Collins, who sparked the fateful bottom of the eighth against the Red Sox on Sunday.
Granted this interview was likely done Friday or possibly Thursday. So Saturday's implosion had yet to take place. However, that doesn't exclude Holland's struggles. That doesn't exclude Herrera's meltdown Tuesday against the Braves. If anything, the Royals' bullpen has been the most glaring weakness this season.
The offense has been middling at best and that was a danger entering the season. Ned Yost has made Ned Yost-like decisions and there was no reason not to expect that to happen. But the bullpen was supposed to be as sure of a bet as the Royals could hope for. At this point, I'm thinking it's time for Aaron Crow to start fulfilling his first round expectations as the club's stopper.
If there has been any kind of secret kept by the Royals thus far, it's that four of their five starters have ERAs below 3.50. Both Ervin Santana's FIP (4.51) and xFIP (3.75) suggest his 2.45 ERA won't last. Same for Wade Davis (2.25/3.56/3.25) and Jeremy Guthrie (3.20/5.24/3.44). However, Shield's FIP (2.82) and xFIP (2.99) imply he's done more to earn his keep than his 3.43 ERA would let on. And perhaps Luis Mendoza (6.17/3.06/4.14) can recover and hang onto his spot in the rotation.
While I think the Royals' season could very well be on the verge of slipping back down into the doldrums of the AL Central, I think the starting rotation does deserve some recognition for keeping the club in games to this point. It's great that the Worldwide Leader chose to give the Royals some exposure on its main baseball podcast, but I can't believe someone like Buster Olney would miss the mark so badly. For a moment, it made me forget Moore was the same person who handed Myers to the Rays but still won't pull the trigger on plucking Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins. This season is the beginning of their "window" to win, after all.
Fire Dayton Moore
Olney's first guest on the show was none other than Royals GM Dayton Moore, not to be confused with Daynot Moore. Olney touches on the obvious (an overview of the negotiations between Moore and Rays GM Andrew Friedman, the decision to give up Wil Myers, what Moore sees in Eric Hosmer, and so on). Moore answers the only way he knows how — like a politician.
However, it was Olney who had me shaking my head in disbelief during the interview. At a certain point, Olney asks Moore about his "best kept secrets in baseball." Just who are these secrets Olney was referring to? Alex Gordon and Billy Butler? No. Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura? Nope. Kauffman Stadium and Arthur Bryant's? Nah. It was obviously the Royals' bullpen.
The same bullpen anchored by Greg Holland and his 9.00 ERA, 3.56 FIP and 4.26 xFIP to go with a .294 BAA and 2.75 WHIP. The same bullpen that in a single week submarined the entire team thanks in part to Kelvin Herrera's four home runs allowed. Just days after seemingly surpassing Holland for the closer role, Herrera boasts a 7.36 ERA and 8.10 FIP. And the same bullpen that includes J.C. Gutierrez.
True, Bruce Chen, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins and amazingly Luke Hochevar have been admirable in middle relief. But to a man, almost every Royals reliever has wilted in high-leverage situations, including Collins, who sparked the fateful bottom of the eighth against the Red Sox on Sunday.
Granted this interview was likely done Friday or possibly Thursday. So Saturday's implosion had yet to take place. However, that doesn't exclude Holland's struggles. That doesn't exclude Herrera's meltdown Tuesday against the Braves. If anything, the Royals' bullpen has been the most glaring weakness this season.
The offense has been middling at best and that was a danger entering the season. Ned Yost has made Ned Yost-like decisions and there was no reason not to expect that to happen. But the bullpen was supposed to be as sure of a bet as the Royals could hope for. At this point, I'm thinking it's time for Aaron Crow to start fulfilling his first round expectations as the club's stopper.
If there has been any kind of secret kept by the Royals thus far, it's that four of their five starters have ERAs below 3.50. Both Ervin Santana's FIP (4.51) and xFIP (3.75) suggest his 2.45 ERA won't last. Same for Wade Davis (2.25/3.56/3.25) and Jeremy Guthrie (3.20/5.24/3.44). However, Shield's FIP (2.82) and xFIP (2.99) imply he's done more to earn his keep than his 3.43 ERA would let on. And perhaps Luis Mendoza (6.17/3.06/4.14) can recover and hang onto his spot in the rotation.
While I think the Royals' season could very well be on the verge of slipping back down into the doldrums of the AL Central, I think the starting rotation does deserve some recognition for keeping the club in games to this point. It's great that the Worldwide Leader chose to give the Royals some exposure on its main baseball podcast, but I can't believe someone like Buster Olney would miss the mark so badly. For a moment, it made me forget Moore was the same person who handed Myers to the Rays but still won't pull the trigger on plucking Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins. This season is the beginning of their "window" to win, after all.
Fire Dayton Moore
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