I'll be honest, this isn't what I expected. To be fair, Aprils of Royals' past have given me little reason to.
Two weeks into the season, the Royals stand at 7-5 in first place in the American League Central. Before anyone begins to run a 2013 pennant up their flag pole, I have a couple questions: 1. Did your home have a flag pole when you moved into it or did you install it yourself? 2. How much are Royals 2013 AL Central Champion pennants going for right now?
I would also like to point out every other division leader has a better record than the Royals, save for the Cardinals. Yet, as negative as I want to be about the Royals, there are obviously some positives to recognize.
When I last wrote, the Royals had one last game in Philadelphia before making their six-game home debut. I fully expected Cole Hamels to shut down the Royals lineup, I wouldn't have been surprised to see a hard-to-watch Twins team steal a game or two at Kauffman Stadium, and anticipated the Blue Jays to assert their dominance to close out a disappointing week and send the Royals into a downward spiral. I was wrong on every account.
Despite the bullpen's worst efforts, the Royals took the series with the Phillies and swept the Twins. Even though the Blue Jays did take two of three, the Royals were competitive for most of the series. Through 12 games, the Royals have done, in large part, what they were supposed to do. Another win in Chicago would have been nice, but winning five of their last seven is a pleasant surprise to say the least.
And the Royals have been competitive despite the fact Alex Gordon (.373/.396/.510) and Billy Butler (.257/.435/.457), as usual, are the only bats in the lineup pulling their own weight. Chris Getz (.306/.306/.472) has been serviceable. Lorenzo Cain (.282/.341/.333) has the OBP but no pop as of yet. Same for Eric Hosmer (.276/.400/.310). Meanwhile, Sal Perez (.280/.294/.360) and Al Escobar (.250/.288/.396) have scuffled. Mike Moustakas (.158/.238/.211) appears lost. And Frenchy (.238/.273/.381) has done pretty much what everyone knew he would do.
Yes, Dayton Moore can pat himself on the back tonight because the Royals' success thus far has been a result of the pitching staff he assembled. They've kept the team in virtually every game. The starters have gone deep into games. Other than J.C. Gutierrez and Greg Holland, the bullpen has been lights out.
And perhaps the most significant positive from the homestand was the Royals' victory on Sunday despite Ned Yost's attempts to blow it (Sacrifice bunting in the 7th with Jarrod Dyson on second base? Complete waste of an out.). In past years, the Royals would have lost that game, then fallen apart on their upcoming eight-game road trip.
The second part of the equation can still happen. With two games at the Braves (11-1), three at the Red Sox (7-4) and three at the Tigers (6-5), this upcoming eight-game stretch will make the Royals' first 12 games seem like Spring Training.
If Hosmer and Moustakas don't wake up soon, the time may come to seriously question whether either player is cut out for the big leagues. They are the duo the Royals need to drive the offense. Not Perez and Escobar. Their value is in their defense. Their offense is a bonus. Bottomline, the Royals can only subsist on 3- and 4-run outputs for so long.
As for Moore's mound crew, I can't help but feel like the floodgates are about to open. Ervin Santana has the lowest ERA among the starters, but the most home runs allowed. Shields has the highest batting average against in the rotation and his performance against the Phillies without having to face a DH, was not becoming of an "ace." Jeremy Guthrie has performed as expected. Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza will remain liabilities as long as they're in the rotation, but are nevertheless better options than Luke Hochevar.
Finally, as I've said before, the main impact a manager can have on a club is with his late-inning decisions — most notably calls to the bullpen. If Yost continues to trust Holland to close games, the Royals might be this year's version of the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers who led baseball with 29 blown saves and missed the playoffs by five games. I think we all can agree Kelvin Herrera is the best arm in the bullpen right now. Use him. When he becomes ineffective, give Aaron Crow a turn. After him, why not Tim Collins?
I believe the first team that discards the shackles of the term "closer" and simply bases its relief hierarchy on match ups will be this era's version of the Moneyball A's. Any pitcher is capable of recording the 27th out of a game in the right situation. The Royals won't be that team as long as Yost is manager.
Don't get me wrong, I think it's cool the Royals are leading the division halfway through April. But realistically, they're basically in first place because the Tigers are allowing them to be.
Fire Dayton Moore
Fire Dayton Moore
It's time.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Saturday, April 6, 2013
So close — or close
Dayton Moore must have been proud of himself around the fifth inning today.
In one fell swoop, Jeff Francoeur doubled to put himself and Lorenzo Cain in scoring position. Miguel Tejada hopped out of his casket and followed Frenchy with an RBI groundout. Then prized PTBNL of the Wil Myers trade, Elliot Johnson, singled to bring home Francoeur and put the Royals up, 2-0 on the Phillies.
In the seventh, Moore had to have been radiant. Francoeur led off with another double. Miggy traded places with him to put the Royals up, 3-1. The Royals were nine outs from climbing over .500 and setting up a possible sweep of a National League powerhouse (I can only imagine Moore still views the Phillies as a powerhouse considering such stalwarts as Ryan Howard, Michael Young and Delmon Young are on the payroll).
Two innings later, the Royals did what they do so well, turning a two-run lead into a 4-3 loss to drop back below .500. Again, I won't be surprised if they remain there the rest of the way. Like a game of Tetris, just when everything appears to be under control, the pieces start falling faster and faster until they're out of control and you're left staring at a jumbled mess.
Five times they went down in order. The Phillies put their leadoff man on base just twice on Saturday. Both times came back to scramble the Royals' Tetris matrix.
Luis Mendoza was excellent, striking out seven and allowing just five baserunners in six innings. He attacked an altogether weak lineup, throwing 17 of 23 first-pitch strikes. His one mistake was allowing a leadoff walk to John Mayberry Jr. in the bottom of the fifth, which turned into Philadelphia's first run.
Alas, Ned Yost stepped in to allow the game to slip away. Rather, he refused to step in, hanging Greg Holland out to dry and walk the bases loaded in the ninth. Three batters later, Holland gave up a bases-clearing, game-winning double to Kevin Frandsen.
This leads me into last week's episode of The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe. With Joe Sheehan bringing up the topic, the two discussed the Royals' loss on Opening Day. Sheehan in particular discussed how the Royals will be submarined by Yost's mismanagement this season.
(Effectively Wild also discussed the Royals' fitting start to the season last week if you feel like giving it a listen.)
In general, I'm not one to place too much blame on a manager. Recent research has shown lineup construction has a minimal impact on run production over the course of a season. So that leaves the manager with two means of influencing a ball club: 1. Clubhouse atmosphere; 2. Late-game substitutions.
As Sheehan points out, Yost already whiffed on pinch-hitting opportunities the first game of the season (although I thought it was wise to pinch run Jarrod Dyson for Billy Butler late). I didn't see Saturday's game, but in general I can't defend keeping a pitcher in the game after he has walked the first three batters he's faced to put the winning run on base.
The Royals had one of the best bullpens in baseball last season. The bullpen has done nothing thus far for Yost to lose faith in it as a whole. Only Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera pitched out of the pen prior to Holland. Only Tim Collins threw an excessive amount of pitches on Friday afternoon.
So I don't really care that Holland struck out the fourth and fifth batters he faced on Saturday. He shouldn't have had the opportunity in the first place. It doesn't matter if the calendar just flipped to April. Every winnable game matters. To a certain degree, you have to treat every close game as if it's a playoff game and in Game 7 of a playoff series, there's no way Holland stays in the game in that situation.
Now Cole Hamels stands between the Royals and a series victory and 3-3 record. Seeing how the Royals have only managed to defeat Gavin Floyd and Kyle Kendrick (the two most Royals-y pitchers to never have suited up for the Royals — yet), the odds are against them.
And if it doesn't happen, the Royals will need to take four of six on their opening homestand to get back to .500. After that, it's a nightmare eight-game road trip to Atlanta, Boston and Detroit. Considering the Royals' history with the Twins and the Blue Jays' overall talent, it's not a stretch to imagine April slipping away before the Royals ever had a grasp on it. In much the same way Saturday's loss unraveled.
Fire Dayton Moore
In one fell swoop, Jeff Francoeur doubled to put himself and Lorenzo Cain in scoring position. Miguel Tejada hopped out of his casket and followed Frenchy with an RBI groundout. Then prized PTBNL of the Wil Myers trade, Elliot Johnson, singled to bring home Francoeur and put the Royals up, 2-0 on the Phillies.
In the seventh, Moore had to have been radiant. Francoeur led off with another double. Miggy traded places with him to put the Royals up, 3-1. The Royals were nine outs from climbing over .500 and setting up a possible sweep of a National League powerhouse (I can only imagine Moore still views the Phillies as a powerhouse considering such stalwarts as Ryan Howard, Michael Young and Delmon Young are on the payroll).
Two innings later, the Royals did what they do so well, turning a two-run lead into a 4-3 loss to drop back below .500. Again, I won't be surprised if they remain there the rest of the way. Like a game of Tetris, just when everything appears to be under control, the pieces start falling faster and faster until they're out of control and you're left staring at a jumbled mess.
Five times they went down in order. The Phillies put their leadoff man on base just twice on Saturday. Both times came back to scramble the Royals' Tetris matrix.
Luis Mendoza was excellent, striking out seven and allowing just five baserunners in six innings. He attacked an altogether weak lineup, throwing 17 of 23 first-pitch strikes. His one mistake was allowing a leadoff walk to John Mayberry Jr. in the bottom of the fifth, which turned into Philadelphia's first run.
Alas, Ned Yost stepped in to allow the game to slip away. Rather, he refused to step in, hanging Greg Holland out to dry and walk the bases loaded in the ninth. Three batters later, Holland gave up a bases-clearing, game-winning double to Kevin Frandsen.
This leads me into last week's episode of The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe. With Joe Sheehan bringing up the topic, the two discussed the Royals' loss on Opening Day. Sheehan in particular discussed how the Royals will be submarined by Yost's mismanagement this season.
(Effectively Wild also discussed the Royals' fitting start to the season last week if you feel like giving it a listen.)
In general, I'm not one to place too much blame on a manager. Recent research has shown lineup construction has a minimal impact on run production over the course of a season. So that leaves the manager with two means of influencing a ball club: 1. Clubhouse atmosphere; 2. Late-game substitutions.
As Sheehan points out, Yost already whiffed on pinch-hitting opportunities the first game of the season (although I thought it was wise to pinch run Jarrod Dyson for Billy Butler late). I didn't see Saturday's game, but in general I can't defend keeping a pitcher in the game after he has walked the first three batters he's faced to put the winning run on base.
The Royals had one of the best bullpens in baseball last season. The bullpen has done nothing thus far for Yost to lose faith in it as a whole. Only Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera pitched out of the pen prior to Holland. Only Tim Collins threw an excessive amount of pitches on Friday afternoon.
So I don't really care that Holland struck out the fourth and fifth batters he faced on Saturday. He shouldn't have had the opportunity in the first place. It doesn't matter if the calendar just flipped to April. Every winnable game matters. To a certain degree, you have to treat every close game as if it's a playoff game and in Game 7 of a playoff series, there's no way Holland stays in the game in that situation.
Now Cole Hamels stands between the Royals and a series victory and 3-3 record. Seeing how the Royals have only managed to defeat Gavin Floyd and Kyle Kendrick (the two most Royals-y pitchers to never have suited up for the Royals — yet), the odds are against them.
And if it doesn't happen, the Royals will need to take four of six on their opening homestand to get back to .500. After that, it's a nightmare eight-game road trip to Atlanta, Boston and Detroit. Considering the Royals' history with the Twins and the Blue Jays' overall talent, it's not a stretch to imagine April slipping away before the Royals ever had a grasp on it. In much the same way Saturday's loss unraveled.
Fire Dayton Moore
Monday, April 1, 2013
Your 2013 Kansas City Royals
This is why James Shields will not single-handedly change the culture emanating from Kauffman Stadium.
The Royals opened the season with a 1-0 loss at the White Sox on Monday. Already, I'm left wondering if the club will climb above .500 at any point this season.
Highlights from the game were few and far between for the Fightin' Ned Yosts. Alcides Escobar had a pair of hits. Eric Hosmer drew a crucial walk and stole second in the ninth to reach scoring position. But at the same time, no Royals player recorded an extra base hit and they combined to leave eight men on base, going 1 for 5 with RISP.
Jeff Francoeur managed a pair of singles, but of course with Hosmer on second and two outs in the ninth, he grounded out to end the game. Yet, such performances will buy Frenchy all the job security he needs.
Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera were near perfect out of the bullpen. But, again, hitting conditions were less than ideal and the White Sox did have Jeff Keppinger hitting second in the order.
Oh yeah, and Shields made his Royals debut. He allowed just one run on eight hits in six innings while fanning six. Then again, he gave up a leadoff home run to White Sox No. 8 hitter Tyler Flowers in the bottom of the fifth, which decided the game. A bonafide "ace" wouldn't have set that changeup on a tee for Flowers to park in the stands. Shields did.
Look, I'm not pinning this one on Shields and using this start as Exhibit A as to why Dayton Moore overpaid for Shields. If Shields can pitch like he did Monday at least three out of every five starts for the next two seasons, you can build a solid defense for the trade.
But Monday's loss is Exhibit A as to why the Royals are no closer to a winning season or playoff appearance with James Shields than they were without him.
Given the conditions, even Jeremy Guthrie would have been capable of holding the White Sox to a run. That's not why the Royals lost. They lost because Alex Gordon got on base just once. They lost because Billy Butler struck out with the bases loaded and just one out and Mike Moustakas, who was 0 for 4 with two strikeouts and six men left stranded for the game, followed up with a pop out. They lost because Lorenzo Cain did nothing to prove he's an everyday player from a hitting standpoint, going 0 for 4 with two strikeouts and three men left on base.
It's just one game. There are some positives to take away from it. Any negatives could easily reverse direction as soon as Wednesday. But the Royals' foundation is built upon the likes of Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Hosmer and Cain. If they aren't capable of stepping up against a frontline starter like Chris Sale in tough hitting conditions, then this team simply isn't ready to win.
Maybe in two years this core will be ready to win. But by then, Shields will be gone and who knows what Moore will have done with the rotation.
Fire Dayton Moore
The Royals opened the season with a 1-0 loss at the White Sox on Monday. Already, I'm left wondering if the club will climb above .500 at any point this season.
Highlights from the game were few and far between for the Fightin' Ned Yosts. Alcides Escobar had a pair of hits. Eric Hosmer drew a crucial walk and stole second in the ninth to reach scoring position. But at the same time, no Royals player recorded an extra base hit and they combined to leave eight men on base, going 1 for 5 with RISP.
Jeff Francoeur managed a pair of singles, but of course with Hosmer on second and two outs in the ninth, he grounded out to end the game. Yet, such performances will buy Frenchy all the job security he needs.
Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera were near perfect out of the bullpen. But, again, hitting conditions were less than ideal and the White Sox did have Jeff Keppinger hitting second in the order.
Oh yeah, and Shields made his Royals debut. He allowed just one run on eight hits in six innings while fanning six. Then again, he gave up a leadoff home run to White Sox No. 8 hitter Tyler Flowers in the bottom of the fifth, which decided the game. A bonafide "ace" wouldn't have set that changeup on a tee for Flowers to park in the stands. Shields did.
Look, I'm not pinning this one on Shields and using this start as Exhibit A as to why Dayton Moore overpaid for Shields. If Shields can pitch like he did Monday at least three out of every five starts for the next two seasons, you can build a solid defense for the trade.
But Monday's loss is Exhibit A as to why the Royals are no closer to a winning season or playoff appearance with James Shields than they were without him.
Given the conditions, even Jeremy Guthrie would have been capable of holding the White Sox to a run. That's not why the Royals lost. They lost because Alex Gordon got on base just once. They lost because Billy Butler struck out with the bases loaded and just one out and Mike Moustakas, who was 0 for 4 with two strikeouts and six men left stranded for the game, followed up with a pop out. They lost because Lorenzo Cain did nothing to prove he's an everyday player from a hitting standpoint, going 0 for 4 with two strikeouts and three men left on base.
It's just one game. There are some positives to take away from it. Any negatives could easily reverse direction as soon as Wednesday. But the Royals' foundation is built upon the likes of Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Hosmer and Cain. If they aren't capable of stepping up against a frontline starter like Chris Sale in tough hitting conditions, then this team simply isn't ready to win.
Maybe in two years this core will be ready to win. But by then, Shields will be gone and who knows what Moore will have done with the rotation.
Fire Dayton Moore
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Official FDM 2013 MLB Predictions
I've made some bold statements the last three months, so now it's time to branch out and make some bold predictions for the 2013 season. Well, they might not all be bold, but they will be predictions and I'll stand by them as I have everything else I've written. So enjoy a little light reading.
American League East
1. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays play in a stadium that should never host a baseball game in a city that doesn't appreciate baseball, but from top to bottom the front office hierarchy has running a baseball franchise down to a science. The Rays won't miss James Shields and could get a midseason boost from Wil Myers to push them over the top in an always-tough division.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (WC): I was behind the Blue Jays pushing their chips all the way in this offseason. On paper, they have the best team in the division, but their one downfall could be staking their fate to players with vast injury histories (Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio), a Cy Young winner with a short track record (R.A. Dickey) and an outfielder coming off a PED suspension (Melky Cabrera).
3. Boston Red Sox: It's not the Red Sox's year to return to glory, but they're headed in the right direction after purging their roster in 2012. At least they'll be better than the Yankees.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Buster Olney and several other ESPN personalities I've listened to have gotten incredibly positive vibes from Orioles camp, but I'm not buying in. Everyone is upbeat in March.
5. New York Yankees: Too many injuries, too many aging players and no money to spend to stay under the luxury tax threshold. There are promising prospects on the way, but this season is simply the Yankees' chickens coming home to roost.
American League Central
1. Detroit Tigers: The most complete team in the division topped off by perhaps baseball's best hitter and pitcher in Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.
2. Cleveland Indians: A sneaky good offseason, giving up draft picks to sign free agents such as Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. If Scott Kazmir can actually resurrect his career, there's no reason the Indians can't compete in an otherwise blah division.
3. Chicago White Sox: They're similar to the Rex Sox, but seem to be going in the wrong direction. They're going nowhere important this year and probably aren't headed in the right direction as players like Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Jake Peavy continue to age.
4. Kansas City Royals: No surprise here as I fully expect Dayton Moore's poorly executed offseason to blow up in his face. But if the Royals approach .500, he'll likely keep his job for another undeserved season.
5. Minnesota Twins: This will be a truly sad season if the Twins are forced to trade Joe Mauer. But if the same clause that allowed the Yankees to acquire Vernon Wells and stay under the luxury tax threshold would also be in effect with a Mauer trade, the timing may never be better.
American League West
1. Texas Rangers: This division is the toughest for me to predict. I did not like the Rangers offseason, whatsoever. But I do trust GM Jon Daniels, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Because he's held onto his elite prospects, he is still in position to make a major trade should the opportunity arise.
2. Oakland Athletics (WC): Billy Beane. Nothing more. Nothing less.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels do have more firepower than the Rangers on offense, but their pitching is likely to be worse. Perhaps much worse. It will be interesting to see how Mike Trout performs with his added weight, how Albert Pujols performs as age continues to gain ground on him, and how Josh Hamilton and Mark Trumbo perform with their struggles in the second half of last season.
4. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners tried to make strides this offseason, but a supposed trade refusal by Justin Upton put the kibosh on that. Like the Royals, a franchise that for some reason is forced to try too hard to land top tier talent.
5. Houston Astros: As hard as it was to remember the Rays were no longer the "Devil Rays," it will be even more difficult to remember the Astros are now an American League team. It's a nice fit to have both Texas teams in the same division, but why weren't the Brewers forced to switch back, Bud Selig?
National League East
1. Washington Nationals: No innings limit for Stephen Strasburg equals no chance for the rest of the National League.
2. Atlanta Braves (WC): I was incredibly impressed by the Braves' offseason and can only believe combining B.J. and Justin Upton can only better both of their careers.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: As much as I liked the Braves' offseason, I despised the Phillies'. Michael Young and Delmon Young did nothing to improve their chances and if Domonic Brown busts for good, I wouldn't be surprised if Ruben Amaro Jr. trades for Jeff Francoeur.
4. Miami Marlins: Despite all the young talent the Marlins received for selling off their best players, if they trade Giancarlo Stanton, they might as well move the team because no self-respecting baseball fan would enter their stadium again.
5. New York Mets: Marlon Byrd is penciled in as their starting right fielder.
National League Central
1. Cincinnati Reds: The starting rotation is a concern, but the Reds have the most checkers of any team in the division.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun is fully capable of carrying this club to a division title, but he has to avoid suspension first.
3. St. Louis Cardinals: It goes against my nature to doubt the Cardinals' ability to win, but the infield is a disaster and injuries are already popping up across the diamond.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: I've adopted the Pirates as my National League team to pull for but there just isn't enough around Andrew McCutchen. I just hope they can reach .500. If not help should be on the way soon.
5. Chicago Cubs: Compared to the Royals' attempts to land pitching, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer put on a clinic. And they can still trade Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Marmol and Matt Garza to build for next year.
National League West
1. San Francisco Giants: They're not as sexy as their neighbors in Los Angeles, but they're built solid from top to bottom. There's a reason they've won two of the last three World Series titles.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (WC): All the spending they've done in the last year should get them into the postseason, but so many question marks remain, barring another big move (or three), they likely won't advance past the Wild Card round.
3. San Diego Padres: This is more a vote against the Diamondbacks and Rockies than a vote for the Padres. It will be interesting to see how the new outfield dimensions affect Padres hitters and pitchers.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: As much as I disliked the Royals' offseason, I was offended by the Diamondbacks'. I give them credit for choosing a path and committing to it, but if it leads anywhere but a 72-90 season it will set baseball back ages.
5. Colorado Rockies: The only storyline I'm interested in with this team is whether or not Troy Tulowitzki gets traded. Or whether he stays healthy long enough to get traded.
American League Championship Series
Tampa Bay Rays def. Detroit Tigers in 7 games
National League Championship Series
Washington Nationals def. Atlanta Braves in 6 games
World Series
Washington Nationals def. Tampa Bay Rays in 6 games
Fire Dayton Moore
American League East
1. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays play in a stadium that should never host a baseball game in a city that doesn't appreciate baseball, but from top to bottom the front office hierarchy has running a baseball franchise down to a science. The Rays won't miss James Shields and could get a midseason boost from Wil Myers to push them over the top in an always-tough division.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (WC): I was behind the Blue Jays pushing their chips all the way in this offseason. On paper, they have the best team in the division, but their one downfall could be staking their fate to players with vast injury histories (Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio), a Cy Young winner with a short track record (R.A. Dickey) and an outfielder coming off a PED suspension (Melky Cabrera).
3. Boston Red Sox: It's not the Red Sox's year to return to glory, but they're headed in the right direction after purging their roster in 2012. At least they'll be better than the Yankees.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Buster Olney and several other ESPN personalities I've listened to have gotten incredibly positive vibes from Orioles camp, but I'm not buying in. Everyone is upbeat in March.
5. New York Yankees: Too many injuries, too many aging players and no money to spend to stay under the luxury tax threshold. There are promising prospects on the way, but this season is simply the Yankees' chickens coming home to roost.
American League Central
1. Detroit Tigers: The most complete team in the division topped off by perhaps baseball's best hitter and pitcher in Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.
2. Cleveland Indians: A sneaky good offseason, giving up draft picks to sign free agents such as Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. If Scott Kazmir can actually resurrect his career, there's no reason the Indians can't compete in an otherwise blah division.
3. Chicago White Sox: They're similar to the Rex Sox, but seem to be going in the wrong direction. They're going nowhere important this year and probably aren't headed in the right direction as players like Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Jake Peavy continue to age.
4. Kansas City Royals: No surprise here as I fully expect Dayton Moore's poorly executed offseason to blow up in his face. But if the Royals approach .500, he'll likely keep his job for another undeserved season.
5. Minnesota Twins: This will be a truly sad season if the Twins are forced to trade Joe Mauer. But if the same clause that allowed the Yankees to acquire Vernon Wells and stay under the luxury tax threshold would also be in effect with a Mauer trade, the timing may never be better.
American League West
1. Texas Rangers: This division is the toughest for me to predict. I did not like the Rangers offseason, whatsoever. But I do trust GM Jon Daniels, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Because he's held onto his elite prospects, he is still in position to make a major trade should the opportunity arise.
2. Oakland Athletics (WC): Billy Beane. Nothing more. Nothing less.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels do have more firepower than the Rangers on offense, but their pitching is likely to be worse. Perhaps much worse. It will be interesting to see how Mike Trout performs with his added weight, how Albert Pujols performs as age continues to gain ground on him, and how Josh Hamilton and Mark Trumbo perform with their struggles in the second half of last season.
4. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners tried to make strides this offseason, but a supposed trade refusal by Justin Upton put the kibosh on that. Like the Royals, a franchise that for some reason is forced to try too hard to land top tier talent.
5. Houston Astros: As hard as it was to remember the Rays were no longer the "Devil Rays," it will be even more difficult to remember the Astros are now an American League team. It's a nice fit to have both Texas teams in the same division, but why weren't the Brewers forced to switch back, Bud Selig?
National League East
1. Washington Nationals: No innings limit for Stephen Strasburg equals no chance for the rest of the National League.
2. Atlanta Braves (WC): I was incredibly impressed by the Braves' offseason and can only believe combining B.J. and Justin Upton can only better both of their careers.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: As much as I liked the Braves' offseason, I despised the Phillies'. Michael Young and Delmon Young did nothing to improve their chances and if Domonic Brown busts for good, I wouldn't be surprised if Ruben Amaro Jr. trades for Jeff Francoeur.
4. Miami Marlins: Despite all the young talent the Marlins received for selling off their best players, if they trade Giancarlo Stanton, they might as well move the team because no self-respecting baseball fan would enter their stadium again.
5. New York Mets: Marlon Byrd is penciled in as their starting right fielder.
National League Central
1. Cincinnati Reds: The starting rotation is a concern, but the Reds have the most checkers of any team in the division.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun is fully capable of carrying this club to a division title, but he has to avoid suspension first.
3. St. Louis Cardinals: It goes against my nature to doubt the Cardinals' ability to win, but the infield is a disaster and injuries are already popping up across the diamond.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: I've adopted the Pirates as my National League team to pull for but there just isn't enough around Andrew McCutchen. I just hope they can reach .500. If not help should be on the way soon.
5. Chicago Cubs: Compared to the Royals' attempts to land pitching, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer put on a clinic. And they can still trade Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Marmol and Matt Garza to build for next year.
National League West
1. San Francisco Giants: They're not as sexy as their neighbors in Los Angeles, but they're built solid from top to bottom. There's a reason they've won two of the last three World Series titles.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (WC): All the spending they've done in the last year should get them into the postseason, but so many question marks remain, barring another big move (or three), they likely won't advance past the Wild Card round.
3. San Diego Padres: This is more a vote against the Diamondbacks and Rockies than a vote for the Padres. It will be interesting to see how the new outfield dimensions affect Padres hitters and pitchers.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: As much as I disliked the Royals' offseason, I was offended by the Diamondbacks'. I give them credit for choosing a path and committing to it, but if it leads anywhere but a 72-90 season it will set baseball back ages.
5. Colorado Rockies: The only storyline I'm interested in with this team is whether or not Troy Tulowitzki gets traded. Or whether he stays healthy long enough to get traded.
American League Championship Series
Tampa Bay Rays def. Detroit Tigers in 7 games
National League Championship Series
Washington Nationals def. Atlanta Braves in 6 games
World Series
Washington Nationals def. Tampa Bay Rays in 6 games
Fire Dayton Moore
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Not exactly easy listening Part VI
This week's episode of The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe is their National League and American League Central Division preview.
As you might expect, the Royals were the main event of the episode and Rany Jazayerli took a look back at the James Shields trade and how it impacts this season. He worded it perfectly and in a way I haven't managed to put it.
In so many words, Jazayerli said the Shields trade put the Royals in position for a "moral victory" in 2013. And that's really exactly what the trade accomplished. The Royals will be decent this year. They'll be respectable. They won't be a laughing stock (I don't think).
But there's virtually no chance the Royals make a postseason appearance in 2013. And looking ahead to 2014, they will rely almost exclusively on the development of their own players to hope to make a playoff run in 2014. (If you thought this past offseason was devoid of impact free agents, next offseason appears even more bleak and there are still months between now and then for would-be free agents to sign with their current clubs.)
So, in short, Royals fans realistically can only look forward to two years of admirable baseball. Maybe they eclipse the .500 mark and that's pretty much it. A pure moral victory. There won't be any shiny new banners flying in the outfield. But years from now, fans can say to one another, "Hey, remember when we traded for James Shields and finished above .500?"
"Yeah, kind of. But how about that Wil Myers of the Rays? Man, it'd be nice to have a franchise player like that here in Kansas City."
Fire Dayton Moore
As you might expect, the Royals were the main event of the episode and Rany Jazayerli took a look back at the James Shields trade and how it impacts this season. He worded it perfectly and in a way I haven't managed to put it.
In so many words, Jazayerli said the Shields trade put the Royals in position for a "moral victory" in 2013. And that's really exactly what the trade accomplished. The Royals will be decent this year. They'll be respectable. They won't be a laughing stock (I don't think).
But there's virtually no chance the Royals make a postseason appearance in 2013. And looking ahead to 2014, they will rely almost exclusively on the development of their own players to hope to make a playoff run in 2014. (If you thought this past offseason was devoid of impact free agents, next offseason appears even more bleak and there are still months between now and then for would-be free agents to sign with their current clubs.)
So, in short, Royals fans realistically can only look forward to two years of admirable baseball. Maybe they eclipse the .500 mark and that's pretty much it. A pure moral victory. There won't be any shiny new banners flying in the outfield. But years from now, fans can say to one another, "Hey, remember when we traded for James Shields and finished above .500?"
"Yeah, kind of. But how about that Wil Myers of the Rays? Man, it'd be nice to have a franchise player like that here in Kansas City."
Fire Dayton Moore
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Luke, Dayton is your father
It's time. To write a post about Luke Hochevar, that is.
I've spent too much of the offseason focused on filling the Royals' void in right field, a result of the fact its current occupant fills the void in Dayton Moore's heart. I've dwelled for too long on Moore's hastily and poorly assembled starting rotation. The fact Hochevar is still a member of the Royals, albeit hidden in a bullpen role, is an atrocity of it's own that I haven't given enough attention.
I've said from the moment Moore traded Wil Myers for James Shields in hopes of passing the Royals off as a contender that they're a third place team in the American League Central, at best, and they will finish below .500 this season. ESPN the Magazine's 2013 MLB season preview issue came in the mail this week and backed me up, projecting the Royals to finish fourth behind the Tigers, Indians and White Sox.
I bring this up because, when the Royals prove me right and Moore wrong, fans will probably still turn to their usual goat: David Glass. However, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Glass has committed $79.8 million to this year's edition of the Royals. More than enough to challenge for a Wild Card, if not a pennant. If it had been spent wisely, that is.
Of that $79.8 million, $4.56 million is devoted to Hochevar. To be a middle reliever. Maybe a closer in the wildest of imaginations. The only possible scenario that would be worse is if Hochevar were earning $4.56 million to fill a rotation spot.
So, the same franchise that probably has only one starting pitcher who will post a WAR above 2.0 in 2013 (James Shields) will have a No. 1 overall draft pick and a No. 12 overall draft pick (Aaron Crow) serving in relief roles. Had Dayton Moore not blown those two draft picks, the Royals would be legitimate contenders this season.
OK, time for me to get sidetracked. Everyone (including me), focuses on the 2006 MLB Draft. That's the year the Royals could have drafted Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum or Max Scherzer. But instead Moore* elected to go with a pitcher who felt spending a year in Independent League baseball would advance his career.
*I've said it before, I'll say it again: Either the Royals were generous enough to let Moore unofficially run the 2006 MLB draft so he couldn't be blamed if it went bad and he foolishly used that freedom to draft Hochevar or he was foolish enough to work for a team that wouldn't let him have a say in what was ostensibly his first draft and they took Hochevar against his wishes. Either way, Moore looks like a fool.
Now let's look at the 2009 MLB Draft. That's the year the Royals could have drafted Shelby Miller, Kyle Gibson or some outfielder named Mike Trout. You could even glance at the supplemental round and notice gems like James Paxton and Tyler Skaggs. But instead Moore elected to go with a pitcher who felt spending a year in Independent League baseball would advance his career.
There's no debating Moore was in charge of drafting Crow and seeing to it years later that he would be reduced to a reliever. Every time I think I've run out of reasons for Moore to be fired, I find a new one.
Back to Hochevar. On Friday's episode of the Effectively Wild Podcast, Hochevar was a topic of discussion. I don't even remember how he came up, but the hosts began to discuss why he was brought back for the sum of $4.56 when he's clearly shown in six season to be nothing more than a sub-replacement level arm.
One of their thoughts was perhaps Moore was paralyzed by the fear of Hochevar (a former No. 1 overall pick) having success with another organization and couldn't risk letting him go. That sounded reasonable enough. You never want to give up on a relationship too soon in case she (or he) could be "the one."
However, it makes no sense to me the same GM that would cling to a failed No. 1 pick (one he isn't officially responsible for drafting, at that) would also cast off his Minor League Player of the Year in the same offseason. That's like going back to the girl who continuously cheats on you while snubbing the girl who has done nothing but try to earn your affection. And is younger with more years of control and fills a bigger position of need. I'm so good with analogies.
It's one thing to question Moore's ability to think analytically in a day and age when analytics are everything in baseball outside of Arizona and Philadelphia. It's another to question Moore's ability to simply think logically, yet I think it's a question that deserves to be asked.
Had Moore earmarked that $4.56 along with the $13 million he's paying Ervin Santana or the $5 million he's paying Jeremy Guthrie, maybe he could have gotten a Kyle Lohse or Edwin Jackson or Shaun Marcum instead. Maybe that would have given Glass enough wiggle room, even with Santana and Guthrie, to commit to a Giancarlo Stanton or Justin Upton if Moore could find the right package of prospects to land one of those stud right fielders. Instead, Moore carried that $4.56 million into the bullpen, dumped gasoline on it and set fire to it.
What did he possibly think the Royals had to gain by retaining Hochevar's services? Going back to Baseball-Reference.com, if you're unaware, on a player's page the website lists a group of players he is most similar to. On Hochevar's page, his professional doppelgangers are (to name a few): Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Tim Redding, Casey Fossum, Chris Volstad, Scott Elarton, Brian Meadows, Ian Snell, Shawn Chacon and Joe Mays. Fitting that Moore acquired three of these (Davies, Bannister, Volstad) and allowed a fourth one overstay his welcome (Elarton).
Ties to Moore aside, what else do these pitcher have in common? None of them resurrected their careers after years of performing at Hochevar's level. As Ben Lindbergh (I believe) pointed out on the Effectively Wild Podcast, only Phil Nevin was drafted first overall, changed teams and wound up having some modicum of success in recent memory (if it wasn't Lindbergh, it was co-host Sam Miller).
It's as if Moore lives in this magical universe where neither age nor past performance factor into decision making. That or he lives in a galaxy far, far away where he can't use the force of analytics for good but he can't do what is asked of him and eliminate Luke, either. In this case, though, if he could do the former it would lead to the latter.
Fire Dayton Moore
I've spent too much of the offseason focused on filling the Royals' void in right field, a result of the fact its current occupant fills the void in Dayton Moore's heart. I've dwelled for too long on Moore's hastily and poorly assembled starting rotation. The fact Hochevar is still a member of the Royals, albeit hidden in a bullpen role, is an atrocity of it's own that I haven't given enough attention.
I've said from the moment Moore traded Wil Myers for James Shields in hopes of passing the Royals off as a contender that they're a third place team in the American League Central, at best, and they will finish below .500 this season. ESPN the Magazine's 2013 MLB season preview issue came in the mail this week and backed me up, projecting the Royals to finish fourth behind the Tigers, Indians and White Sox.
I bring this up because, when the Royals prove me right and Moore wrong, fans will probably still turn to their usual goat: David Glass. However, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Glass has committed $79.8 million to this year's edition of the Royals. More than enough to challenge for a Wild Card, if not a pennant. If it had been spent wisely, that is.
Of that $79.8 million, $4.56 million is devoted to Hochevar. To be a middle reliever. Maybe a closer in the wildest of imaginations. The only possible scenario that would be worse is if Hochevar were earning $4.56 million to fill a rotation spot.
So, the same franchise that probably has only one starting pitcher who will post a WAR above 2.0 in 2013 (James Shields) will have a No. 1 overall draft pick and a No. 12 overall draft pick (Aaron Crow) serving in relief roles. Had Dayton Moore not blown those two draft picks, the Royals would be legitimate contenders this season.
OK, time for me to get sidetracked. Everyone (including me), focuses on the 2006 MLB Draft. That's the year the Royals could have drafted Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum or Max Scherzer. But instead Moore* elected to go with a pitcher who felt spending a year in Independent League baseball would advance his career.
*I've said it before, I'll say it again: Either the Royals were generous enough to let Moore unofficially run the 2006 MLB draft so he couldn't be blamed if it went bad and he foolishly used that freedom to draft Hochevar or he was foolish enough to work for a team that wouldn't let him have a say in what was ostensibly his first draft and they took Hochevar against his wishes. Either way, Moore looks like a fool.
Now let's look at the 2009 MLB Draft. That's the year the Royals could have drafted Shelby Miller, Kyle Gibson or some outfielder named Mike Trout. You could even glance at the supplemental round and notice gems like James Paxton and Tyler Skaggs. But instead Moore elected to go with a pitcher who felt spending a year in Independent League baseball would advance his career.
There's no debating Moore was in charge of drafting Crow and seeing to it years later that he would be reduced to a reliever. Every time I think I've run out of reasons for Moore to be fired, I find a new one.
Back to Hochevar. On Friday's episode of the Effectively Wild Podcast, Hochevar was a topic of discussion. I don't even remember how he came up, but the hosts began to discuss why he was brought back for the sum of $4.56 when he's clearly shown in six season to be nothing more than a sub-replacement level arm.
One of their thoughts was perhaps Moore was paralyzed by the fear of Hochevar (a former No. 1 overall pick) having success with another organization and couldn't risk letting him go. That sounded reasonable enough. You never want to give up on a relationship too soon in case she (or he) could be "the one."
However, it makes no sense to me the same GM that would cling to a failed No. 1 pick (one he isn't officially responsible for drafting, at that) would also cast off his Minor League Player of the Year in the same offseason. That's like going back to the girl who continuously cheats on you while snubbing the girl who has done nothing but try to earn your affection. And is younger with more years of control and fills a bigger position of need. I'm so good with analogies.
It's one thing to question Moore's ability to think analytically in a day and age when analytics are everything in baseball outside of Arizona and Philadelphia. It's another to question Moore's ability to simply think logically, yet I think it's a question that deserves to be asked.
Had Moore earmarked that $4.56 along with the $13 million he's paying Ervin Santana or the $5 million he's paying Jeremy Guthrie, maybe he could have gotten a Kyle Lohse or Edwin Jackson or Shaun Marcum instead. Maybe that would have given Glass enough wiggle room, even with Santana and Guthrie, to commit to a Giancarlo Stanton or Justin Upton if Moore could find the right package of prospects to land one of those stud right fielders. Instead, Moore carried that $4.56 million into the bullpen, dumped gasoline on it and set fire to it.
What did he possibly think the Royals had to gain by retaining Hochevar's services? Going back to Baseball-Reference.com, if you're unaware, on a player's page the website lists a group of players he is most similar to. On Hochevar's page, his professional doppelgangers are (to name a few): Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Tim Redding, Casey Fossum, Chris Volstad, Scott Elarton, Brian Meadows, Ian Snell, Shawn Chacon and Joe Mays. Fitting that Moore acquired three of these (Davies, Bannister, Volstad) and allowed a fourth one overstay his welcome (Elarton).
Ties to Moore aside, what else do these pitcher have in common? None of them resurrected their careers after years of performing at Hochevar's level. As Ben Lindbergh (I believe) pointed out on the Effectively Wild Podcast, only Phil Nevin was drafted first overall, changed teams and wound up having some modicum of success in recent memory (if it wasn't Lindbergh, it was co-host Sam Miller).
It's as if Moore lives in this magical universe where neither age nor past performance factor into decision making. That or he lives in a galaxy far, far away where he can't use the force of analytics for good but he can't do what is asked of him and eliminate Luke, either. In this case, though, if he could do the former it would lead to the latter.
Fire Dayton Moore
Monday, March 18, 2013
Not exactly easy listening Part V
Another of the many podcasts I listen to is The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe, featuring Rany Jazayerli and Joe Sheehan.
On the March 18 episode, the two mainly discuss the American League East and National League East, but at about the 1 hour, 20 minute mark, they do touch on the Royals. Rany brings up the possibility of the Royals selling the farm for the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton. Sound familiar? It should.
Rany's price tag for Stanton is actually cheaper than the one I hinted at while Sheehan falls more in line with mine, citing the Mark Teixeira trade from Texas to Atlanta.
This obviously doesn't mean a hypothetical Stanton trade to the Royals is even a gleam in Dayton Moore's eye. But it should be.
Fire Dayton Moore
On the March 18 episode, the two mainly discuss the American League East and National League East, but at about the 1 hour, 20 minute mark, they do touch on the Royals. Rany brings up the possibility of the Royals selling the farm for the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton. Sound familiar? It should.
Rany's price tag for Stanton is actually cheaper than the one I hinted at while Sheehan falls more in line with mine, citing the Mark Teixeira trade from Texas to Atlanta.
This obviously doesn't mean a hypothetical Stanton trade to the Royals is even a gleam in Dayton Moore's eye. But it should be.
Fire Dayton Moore
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