I've always felt like a jinx on my favorite teams. The Chiefs tormented me during my youth, taking 13-3 regular seasons and rendering them worthless in the playoffs. Then last fall I moved from Kansas City to Los Angels and suddenly they were contenders. I held off buying in, but by playoff time I was genuinely excited about the Chiefs. OK, I was skeptical as hell, but I was paying attention to the Chiefs again, which is saying a lot. Like clockwork, they were bounced from the playoffs without putting up a fight.
As a former Royals enthusiast, I don't need to explain why I feel like my fandom has had an adverse affect on the boys in blue. But right about the time I started writing for this blog, the laws of logic and reason stopped applying to the Royals. If you need a reminder, this blog started shortly after the Wil Myers-James Shields trade. Since that time, Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie became useful starting pitchers. Justin Maxwell played a useful role for an above-.500 team. And the Royals finished 2013 with an 86-76 record despite relying heavily on Mike Moustakas, Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar, Wade Davis and Luis Mendoza. Think about that for a second.
Anywho, I'm back in the Midwest with limited internet access and starting a new job on Opening Day, which I find fitting. So on one hand my presence in the Midwest could very well bring the Royals back down to earth. Then again, my less-than-hopeful expectations for the season could create a reverse jinx and spur the team on to a playoff run.
So without further adieu, here's my predictions for the 2014 season:
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
AL West
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
NL East
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
Wild Card Teams
AL: Red Sox and Angels
NL: Braves and Brewers
World Series
Cardinals over Rays in 7 games
There you go. I do not have the Royals making the playoffs. Let me have it for being a Negative Nancy. But in all honesty, I see the Royals as a .500 team that will need everything to break right for it to get above .500 and into the playoffs.
Keep in mind, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen are all parts of the Royals' Opening Day rotation. James Shields and rookie Yordano Ventura will have to carry the staff. That's a lot to ask. And as excited as I am to see Ventura with the Royals for a full season, pitching analyst Eno Sarris has watched Ventura and claims he can see his curve coming a mile away. If that's the case, how long will it take MLB hitters to adjust?
As for the offense, I liked the Norichika Aoki trade very much, but I think his career trajectory is dropping rapidly. In more games last season, he had 10 fewer stolen bases (from 30 to 20) and his slugging decreased 66 points despite having a nearly identical batting average and OBP. I also liked the Omar Infante signing but he's already injured, which means the team is going to have to rely on Johnny Giavotella, who I equate with the departed Getz, or some other second base experiment. Escobar has proven by now he's not much more than a glove. All reports out of Spring Training are that Moustakas is a changed hitter. But I feel like we've heard this before. I'm not holding my breath. But I do like Danny Valencia as a platoon partner to help Moustakas out. The team also needs Lorenzo Cain to not only stay healthy, which he hasn't done in a while, but also reach his potential. Most importantly, the Royals need Salvador Perez to remain healthy and continue his ascent to the top of the list of American League catchers as well as bounce back seasons from Alex Gordon and Billy Butler.
ALL of these things have to happen or the Royals are not making the playoffs. Injuries have helped thin the heard in the West, but the East is still stacked and the Indians are coming off a 92-70 season.
I admit, I'm kind of on an island here. Las Vegas has the Royals going 82-80. ESPN has them going 83-79. Royals bloggers Clint Scoles and David Lesky have them winning 86 and 89 games, respectively, if my memory serves me (By the way, subscribe and listen to their Pinetar Podcast. Seriously. You can find it on iTunes. It's free. It's fantastic.).
BUT PECOTA projections actually have the Royals winning 76 games and finishing third behind the Tigers and Indians. Also, Bill James' logic has always stated that a team that comes out of nowhere and has a great season, as the Royals did in 2013, is due to regress the next season. I feel like predicting an 81-win season after an 86-win season is fair. I'm eager to see the Royals prove me wrong again.
Fire Dayton Moore
Fire Dayton Moore
It's time.
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Ervin Santana's twitter account is dead to me
For better or worse, I'm still here. But between moving back to the midwest and a boring last month in baseball (at least from the Royals' perspective*), I haven't found the time or motivation to write anything.
*Read below
But today, Ervin Santana ended his excruciating free agency, signing a one-year deal with the Braves for roughly $14 million. I figured that was as good a reason to get me back on here. The Royals' offseason has been over for some time now but this announcement officially puts a period on it. Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales are still available but would be curious acquisitions, even for Dayton Moore.
I'll try not to dwell too much on the Santana signing and then I'll touch on the few things I skipped writing about earlier this offseason.
I'm actually not sure why the Braves weren't in on Santana months ago. Even if Kris Medlen weren't barreling toward Tommy John surgery, Brandon Beachy weren't having his own arm issues after missing nearly all of 2013, and Mike Minor wasn't flirting with starting the season on the DL, the Braves would still have their fair share of question marks in their rotation. Julio Teheran is legit as far as I'm concerned but Alex Wood was their fifth starter before the Santana signing and the jury is still out on whether he's starter material.
When healthy, that's certainly a good rotation. It's a deep rotation. But there's no clear-cut hierarchy to it. Teheran, Minor and Medlen could all be the No. 1 guy and Beachy could easily be the No. 5. If it were me, from the start, I'd have seriously considered giving up a late first round pick to add a proven veteran to stabilize that staff and allow Wood to slide into a relief role or be the first guy up from Triple-A in case of injury.
Well, the injuries came early this spring for Atlanta and a partnership with Santana became inevitable. And ironically, Santana signed for the same amount he turned down when the Royals presented him a qualifying offer of one year, $14.1 million. Yeah. Now you see how hollow all those cute tweets were from Big Erv (or whoever was operating his twtter account — perhaps his former agent!).
I'm curious to see who Royals fans turn into the bad guy in this situation.
The obvious punching bag is David Glass for not breaking the bank to bring back Santana.
Someone like me might point the finger at Dayton Moore for signing Jason Vargas in November. Sure, Vargas's four-year, $32 million deal looks outrageously cheap compared to the five-year, $100 deal Santana was dreaming of. But compared to a one-year deal of any amount for Santana, the Vargas deal again looks foolish. So I'll say it again: YOU DON'T SIGN FRINGE PLAYERS IN NOVEMBER BECAUSE YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT BARGAINS WILL BE AVAILABLE IN MARCH — AS LONG AS YOU STILL HAVE THE FUNDS!
And then there's Ervin.
And that's if you believe Santana was actually the mind behind his twitter feed. In my experience, I've never seen an athlete fall so head-over-heels for a city. I highly doubt Santana spent his offseason within 1,000 miles of Kansas City. I'm guessing if any reporters ask him to name his favorite Chiefs players during his first press conference with the Braves, he'll be stumped.
How do I think this played out?
Well, I think Santana might have been desperate enough to return to the Royals this month for the same offer he originally turned down. Even if he wasn't behind his twitter account, if he absolutely hated his time here, I don't think he would have allowed whoever was tweeting on his behalf to be quite so pro-Kansas City. However, because of the Vargas signing, I think the Royals refused to spend another $14 million, even if for only one year — a year in which they almost have to win or suffer the humiliating consequences of losing James Shields this offseason and reverting to another eight-year plan.
However, I wouldn't say the Royals passed on Santana because they're cheap. I'm sure the price was part of it. But I think they also believe between Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Vargas, Bruce Chen, Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Wade Davis and Kyle Zimmer their rotation will be fine. That rotation doesn't inspire playoff-caliber confidence in me, but I'm not working for the Royals.
And maybe the Royals don't believe Santana will repeat his 2013 success. He was a -1.0 WAR pitcher in 2012, afterall, before bouncing back to a 3.0 WAR last year — a level he'd reached just twice before in his career and not since 2008.
Last but not least, don't forget the draft pick. With the Braves losing their pick and the Royals gaining one, Kansas City gained the 28th overall pick, which could turn into the 27th or 26th if Drew and/or Morales happen to sign before the draft. Scouts are raving about the Royals' second pick last year, pitcher Sean Manaea, so with extra slot money to spend now, maybe just maybe Moore can hit on another sneaky draft pick.
Personally, I think Santana's stuff plays well at Kauffman Stadium and the Royals defense might even be better this year, so I could've seen him repeating his success in KC. But if the Royals weren't calling, I can't blame Santana for switching over to the National League, going from the eighth best hitters park to the 10th best pitchers park, and pitching in front of another great defense (or at least Andrelton Simmons).
Really, the Santana signing is a fitting end to the offseason. The Braves have had an excellent offseason, signing nearly every young player on the roster to an extension. Meanwhile the Royals essentially drew a line in the sand. Dayton Moore has constructed his team and it's the team he's going into the season with. And if you want to look at it optimistically, perhaps he and Glass decided to save whatever money they would have given to Santana for a midseason acquisition. Perhaps that $14 million is in a "break in case of emergency" case and they don't view a rotation without Santana as an emergency.
*Anyway, while I was away, the Royals released Brad Penny and lost Luke Hochevar for the season to TJ surgery.
This is the first time I've written Brad Penny's name and this is precisely why.
As for Hochevar, it's a tough break for all involved, but on the bright side it saves Ned Yost from being tempted to use Hochevar as a starter. And if there was one area the Royals could take such a hit, it was the bullpen. I'll be surprised if there's a noticeable difference without him.
The real shame to me is the Royals didn't get value for Hochevar at any point they could have traded him — whether they'd traded him at his worst to an organization looking to revive his career or to any team looking for bullpen help after his resurgence last year.
Worst of all, he's eating up $5.2 million of the Royals' budget as he sits on the shelf. Had he been cleared at any point, even if he'd been traded for dirt, that's $5.2 million that could have put the Royals in the market for an impact starting pitcher. Instead Hochevar will be a free agent after the season so he'll either walk for nothing or Moore will just hand him the $14 million he didn't spend on Santana.
I'll go to my grave believing Dayton Moore played a role in the drafting of Luke Hochevar. He was hired to run an organization and that organization just so happened to possess the No. 1 overall pick — a pick that can define the franchise — and he just sat back and left the decision to some scouts he didn't even know that well? No way. If that's truly what he did, then it was an insanely irresponsible decision. So assuming he did in fact pull the trigger on Hochevar, that's an unforgivable mistake.
Fire Dayton Moore
*Read below
But today, Ervin Santana ended his excruciating free agency, signing a one-year deal with the Braves for roughly $14 million. I figured that was as good a reason to get me back on here. The Royals' offseason has been over for some time now but this announcement officially puts a period on it. Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales are still available but would be curious acquisitions, even for Dayton Moore.
I'll try not to dwell too much on the Santana signing and then I'll touch on the few things I skipped writing about earlier this offseason.
I'm actually not sure why the Braves weren't in on Santana months ago. Even if Kris Medlen weren't barreling toward Tommy John surgery, Brandon Beachy weren't having his own arm issues after missing nearly all of 2013, and Mike Minor wasn't flirting with starting the season on the DL, the Braves would still have their fair share of question marks in their rotation. Julio Teheran is legit as far as I'm concerned but Alex Wood was their fifth starter before the Santana signing and the jury is still out on whether he's starter material.
When healthy, that's certainly a good rotation. It's a deep rotation. But there's no clear-cut hierarchy to it. Teheran, Minor and Medlen could all be the No. 1 guy and Beachy could easily be the No. 5. If it were me, from the start, I'd have seriously considered giving up a late first round pick to add a proven veteran to stabilize that staff and allow Wood to slide into a relief role or be the first guy up from Triple-A in case of injury.
Well, the injuries came early this spring for Atlanta and a partnership with Santana became inevitable. And ironically, Santana signed for the same amount he turned down when the Royals presented him a qualifying offer of one year, $14.1 million. Yeah. Now you see how hollow all those cute tweets were from Big Erv (or whoever was operating his twtter account — perhaps his former agent!).
I'm curious to see who Royals fans turn into the bad guy in this situation.
The obvious punching bag is David Glass for not breaking the bank to bring back Santana.
Someone like me might point the finger at Dayton Moore for signing Jason Vargas in November. Sure, Vargas's four-year, $32 million deal looks outrageously cheap compared to the five-year, $100 deal Santana was dreaming of. But compared to a one-year deal of any amount for Santana, the Vargas deal again looks foolish. So I'll say it again: YOU DON'T SIGN FRINGE PLAYERS IN NOVEMBER BECAUSE YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT BARGAINS WILL BE AVAILABLE IN MARCH — AS LONG AS YOU STILL HAVE THE FUNDS!
And then there's Ervin.
"Making me believe again" can be loosely translated to "making me a relevant pitcher again." And Royals fans hoped against hope all offseason he would reward the risk the Royals took on him by signing a team-friendly deal to come back. Especially when it became clear he wasn't getting a $100 million deal.
And Santana sure teased fans. Not only did he tweet about how much he was enjoying being a Royal. ("Be Royal." That should be a slogan. Write that down.) Santana tweeted about the Chiefs more than I thought about the Chiefs last season.
And that's if you believe Santana was actually the mind behind his twitter feed. In my experience, I've never seen an athlete fall so head-over-heels for a city. I highly doubt Santana spent his offseason within 1,000 miles of Kansas City. I'm guessing if any reporters ask him to name his favorite Chiefs players during his first press conference with the Braves, he'll be stumped.
How do I think this played out?
Well, I think Santana might have been desperate enough to return to the Royals this month for the same offer he originally turned down. Even if he wasn't behind his twitter account, if he absolutely hated his time here, I don't think he would have allowed whoever was tweeting on his behalf to be quite so pro-Kansas City. However, because of the Vargas signing, I think the Royals refused to spend another $14 million, even if for only one year — a year in which they almost have to win or suffer the humiliating consequences of losing James Shields this offseason and reverting to another eight-year plan.
However, I wouldn't say the Royals passed on Santana because they're cheap. I'm sure the price was part of it. But I think they also believe between Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Vargas, Bruce Chen, Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Wade Davis and Kyle Zimmer their rotation will be fine. That rotation doesn't inspire playoff-caliber confidence in me, but I'm not working for the Royals.
And maybe the Royals don't believe Santana will repeat his 2013 success. He was a -1.0 WAR pitcher in 2012, afterall, before bouncing back to a 3.0 WAR last year — a level he'd reached just twice before in his career and not since 2008.
Last but not least, don't forget the draft pick. With the Braves losing their pick and the Royals gaining one, Kansas City gained the 28th overall pick, which could turn into the 27th or 26th if Drew and/or Morales happen to sign before the draft. Scouts are raving about the Royals' second pick last year, pitcher Sean Manaea, so with extra slot money to spend now, maybe just maybe Moore can hit on another sneaky draft pick.
Personally, I think Santana's stuff plays well at Kauffman Stadium and the Royals defense might even be better this year, so I could've seen him repeating his success in KC. But if the Royals weren't calling, I can't blame Santana for switching over to the National League, going from the eighth best hitters park to the 10th best pitchers park, and pitching in front of another great defense (or at least Andrelton Simmons).
Really, the Santana signing is a fitting end to the offseason. The Braves have had an excellent offseason, signing nearly every young player on the roster to an extension. Meanwhile the Royals essentially drew a line in the sand. Dayton Moore has constructed his team and it's the team he's going into the season with. And if you want to look at it optimistically, perhaps he and Glass decided to save whatever money they would have given to Santana for a midseason acquisition. Perhaps that $14 million is in a "break in case of emergency" case and they don't view a rotation without Santana as an emergency.
*Anyway, while I was away, the Royals released Brad Penny and lost Luke Hochevar for the season to TJ surgery.
This is the first time I've written Brad Penny's name and this is precisely why.
As for Hochevar, it's a tough break for all involved, but on the bright side it saves Ned Yost from being tempted to use Hochevar as a starter. And if there was one area the Royals could take such a hit, it was the bullpen. I'll be surprised if there's a noticeable difference without him.
The real shame to me is the Royals didn't get value for Hochevar at any point they could have traded him — whether they'd traded him at his worst to an organization looking to revive his career or to any team looking for bullpen help after his resurgence last year.
Worst of all, he's eating up $5.2 million of the Royals' budget as he sits on the shelf. Had he been cleared at any point, even if he'd been traded for dirt, that's $5.2 million that could have put the Royals in the market for an impact starting pitcher. Instead Hochevar will be a free agent after the season so he'll either walk for nothing or Moore will just hand him the $14 million he didn't spend on Santana.
I'll go to my grave believing Dayton Moore played a role in the drafting of Luke Hochevar. He was hired to run an organization and that organization just so happened to possess the No. 1 overall pick — a pick that can define the franchise — and he just sat back and left the decision to some scouts he didn't even know that well? No way. If that's truly what he did, then it was an insanely irresponsible decision. So assuming he did in fact pull the trigger on Hochevar, that's an unforgivable mistake.
Fire Dayton Moore
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Dayton Moore: Bargain Hunter (or Dumpster Diver)
We all know this person. Some of are this person.
The person I'm referring to is the one who hears about a gas station across town selling really cheap fuel. So this person drives all the way across town to fill up on this really cheap fuel.
Of course, this person doesn't drive the most fuel-efficient vehicle to begin with, so they burned a little bit of fuel going across town and back. And of course, the really cheap fuel they bought was actually only like 8 cents cheaper than the station just down the street from where they live. And of course, this person's fuel tank was only half empty, so they only saved 8 cents a gallon on half a tank.
For me, this person is my grandma. I love her dearly, but she's old and has nothing better to do with her time. If she feels like she's accomplishing something, more power to her.
However, there's another person loosely associated with my life who does this on a much larger scale. Dayton Moore. And he mostly seems to do this when it comes to shopping for pitching.
Last season Moore got suckered into trading for Wade Davis along with James Shields. I can only imagine his conversation with Andrew Friedman went something like this:
Whereas I'm of the mind that if something is free, there's usually a catch — or at best, it wastes space in your home — Moore strikes me as someone who can't turn down a "deal," someone prone to bargain shopping.
I mean, the only explanation for Davis' inclusion in the Shields-Myers deal is Moore had to think he was getting some kind of "buy one, get one half off" deal for starting pitching. Of course, the truth of the matter is Davis has no business being in a starting rotation. The Rays knew this and couldn't have been more pleased to unload him, especially when they were getting Odorizzi, a younger and cheaper version of Davis, in return.
Now fast-forward to this offseason.
Moore tripped over himself in his one-man mad dash to sign Jason Vargas to a four-year, $32 million contract in November. Why? Why exactly would someone want to be handcuffed to the 31-year-old Vargas and his career 8.3 WAR, 4.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 5.9 K/9 rate in eight seasons for four more years?
The only explanation I can think of is Moore looked at the numbers and couldn't get over the fact he was signing a Major League pitcher for $8 million a year. It didn't matter to him how many years he was committing to this replacement-level pitcher. All that mattered was by adding an extra year, Moore was able to get a discount over the course of those four years.
And now the Royals are stuck with a glorified fifth starter — something the roster is already fully stocked with — for the next four years.
Less than three months later, with the rotation already overrun by the likes of Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie and possibly even Davis or Luke Hochevar, Moore goes out and signs an older version of Vargas in the familiar form of Bruce Chen. And Ned Yost announces he expects Chen to hold down a rotation spot.
Of course, by this point in the offseason, the conventional wisdom was that the Royals rotation was set unless the club was willing to spring for Ervin Santana or another assumed difference-making starter. Not free agent fodder like Chen. So why did Moore torment Royals fans with such a needless signing?
Well, because Chen was willing to take such a significant discount compared to what he wanted back in November. Moore signed Chen for what amounts to a one-year deal with $4.25 million guaranteed and incentives to sweeten the deal. Originally, Chen was hoping for something between what he got and what Vargas signed for. (Monetarily. I'm not saying Chen was expecting a four-year deal.)
So there Moore went again, drooling over this great bargain he was able to find. In a vacuum, maybe these deals make some sense. Last offseason the Royals really needed pitching. Why not try to get a second arm in the Shield-Myers deal. This offseason, the Royals really needed pitching. Why not sign two reasonably useful arms to discount deals. So what if none of these three pitchers are especially good at their craft. If you're in a generous mood, you can credit Moore for filling the Royals' need for pitching.
However, when you take a step back and look at the entire baseball landscape, it seems Moore was too busy driving across town to save pennies on the dollar and forgot just how many reasonably-priced options would be available to upgrade his pitching staff if he'd been patient.
Tim Hudson 2 years, $23 million with the Giants: If there was ever a time for Moore to sign a former Brave, why not this offseason with Hudson? Seems like the kind of pitcher and personality you'd want on a team with supposed playoff aspirations.
Bartolo Colon 2 years, $20 million with the Mets: I don't care how Colon does it. I don't care how he looks while he does it. His career numbers speak for themselves and I have little doubt he has two more decent years in him.
Scott Feldman 3 years, $30 million with the Astros: Feldman is the same age as Vargas and his career numbers aren't as good, but Feldman has pitched in far more challenging ballparks compared to Vargas, compiling a 10.2 career WAR in nine seasons. And for just $2 million more a year, the Astros are committed to Feldman one fewer year.
Bronson Arroyo 2 years, $23.5 million with the Diamondbacks: Arroyo's numbers are quite similar to Vargas' and Arroyo is five years older. But the fact he would have cost the Royals two fewer years for only $8 million more is what makes him attractive to me.
Paul Maholm 1 year, $1.5 million with the Dodgers: What is it with the NL West? I guess as competitive as the division is compared to the AL Central, more is expected from the GMs out west. Another pitcher with similar career numbers to Vargas and about a year older, but his contract makes him perhaps the biggest steal of the offseason. OF COURSE DAYTON MOORE COULDN'T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MAHOLM'S DESPERATION BECAUSE HE SIGNED VARGAS IN FUCKING NOVEMBER!
The bottom line is this: If Moore had any confidence in his ability to cultivate pitching prospects, he never would have felt compelled to hand out a four-year contract to a mediocre free agent. He wouldn't have wanted a pitcher like Vargas blocking the way for Sean Manaea, Miguel Almonte, Christian Binford or Jason Adam two years from now. And he sure as hell wouldn't have signed such a nondescript pitcher in November if he had any clue how to work the free agent market.
-Fire Dayton Moore
The person I'm referring to is the one who hears about a gas station across town selling really cheap fuel. So this person drives all the way across town to fill up on this really cheap fuel.
Of course, this person doesn't drive the most fuel-efficient vehicle to begin with, so they burned a little bit of fuel going across town and back. And of course, the really cheap fuel they bought was actually only like 8 cents cheaper than the station just down the street from where they live. And of course, this person's fuel tank was only half empty, so they only saved 8 cents a gallon on half a tank.
For me, this person is my grandma. I love her dearly, but she's old and has nothing better to do with her time. If she feels like she's accomplishing something, more power to her.
However, there's another person loosely associated with my life who does this on a much larger scale. Dayton Moore. And he mostly seems to do this when it comes to shopping for pitching.
Last season Moore got suckered into trading for Wade Davis along with James Shields. I can only imagine his conversation with Andrew Friedman went something like this:
Friedman: OK, so for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and this Patrick Leonard kid, I'll send you James Shields AND I'll throw in Wade Davis for FREE.
Moore: Wait. Did you say FREE?
Friedman: Yeah. F-R-E-E.
Moore: (Be cool, Dayton. Be cool.) So you're just going to include Davis and not ask for anything else in return?
Friedman: Not only that, Dayton. I'll include a "player to be named later." I mean, it'll only turn out to be a utility infielder who won't even last the season with your team, but...
Moore: (interrupting) DONE! DONE! IT'S A DONE DEAL. I ACCEPT. YOU CAN'T BACK OUT. FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
Whereas I'm of the mind that if something is free, there's usually a catch — or at best, it wastes space in your home — Moore strikes me as someone who can't turn down a "deal," someone prone to bargain shopping.
I mean, the only explanation for Davis' inclusion in the Shields-Myers deal is Moore had to think he was getting some kind of "buy one, get one half off" deal for starting pitching. Of course, the truth of the matter is Davis has no business being in a starting rotation. The Rays knew this and couldn't have been more pleased to unload him, especially when they were getting Odorizzi, a younger and cheaper version of Davis, in return.
Now fast-forward to this offseason.
Moore tripped over himself in his one-man mad dash to sign Jason Vargas to a four-year, $32 million contract in November. Why? Why exactly would someone want to be handcuffed to the 31-year-old Vargas and his career 8.3 WAR, 4.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 5.9 K/9 rate in eight seasons for four more years?
The only explanation I can think of is Moore looked at the numbers and couldn't get over the fact he was signing a Major League pitcher for $8 million a year. It didn't matter to him how many years he was committing to this replacement-level pitcher. All that mattered was by adding an extra year, Moore was able to get a discount over the course of those four years.
And now the Royals are stuck with a glorified fifth starter — something the roster is already fully stocked with — for the next four years.
Less than three months later, with the rotation already overrun by the likes of Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie and possibly even Davis or Luke Hochevar, Moore goes out and signs an older version of Vargas in the familiar form of Bruce Chen. And Ned Yost announces he expects Chen to hold down a rotation spot.
Of course, by this point in the offseason, the conventional wisdom was that the Royals rotation was set unless the club was willing to spring for Ervin Santana or another assumed difference-making starter. Not free agent fodder like Chen. So why did Moore torment Royals fans with such a needless signing?
Well, because Chen was willing to take such a significant discount compared to what he wanted back in November. Moore signed Chen for what amounts to a one-year deal with $4.25 million guaranteed and incentives to sweeten the deal. Originally, Chen was hoping for something between what he got and what Vargas signed for. (Monetarily. I'm not saying Chen was expecting a four-year deal.)
So there Moore went again, drooling over this great bargain he was able to find. In a vacuum, maybe these deals make some sense. Last offseason the Royals really needed pitching. Why not try to get a second arm in the Shield-Myers deal. This offseason, the Royals really needed pitching. Why not sign two reasonably useful arms to discount deals. So what if none of these three pitchers are especially good at their craft. If you're in a generous mood, you can credit Moore for filling the Royals' need for pitching.
However, when you take a step back and look at the entire baseball landscape, it seems Moore was too busy driving across town to save pennies on the dollar and forgot just how many reasonably-priced options would be available to upgrade his pitching staff if he'd been patient.
Tim Hudson 2 years, $23 million with the Giants: If there was ever a time for Moore to sign a former Brave, why not this offseason with Hudson? Seems like the kind of pitcher and personality you'd want on a team with supposed playoff aspirations.
Bartolo Colon 2 years, $20 million with the Mets: I don't care how Colon does it. I don't care how he looks while he does it. His career numbers speak for themselves and I have little doubt he has two more decent years in him.
Scott Feldman 3 years, $30 million with the Astros: Feldman is the same age as Vargas and his career numbers aren't as good, but Feldman has pitched in far more challenging ballparks compared to Vargas, compiling a 10.2 career WAR in nine seasons. And for just $2 million more a year, the Astros are committed to Feldman one fewer year.
Bronson Arroyo 2 years, $23.5 million with the Diamondbacks: Arroyo's numbers are quite similar to Vargas' and Arroyo is five years older. But the fact he would have cost the Royals two fewer years for only $8 million more is what makes him attractive to me.
Paul Maholm 1 year, $1.5 million with the Dodgers: What is it with the NL West? I guess as competitive as the division is compared to the AL Central, more is expected from the GMs out west. Another pitcher with similar career numbers to Vargas and about a year older, but his contract makes him perhaps the biggest steal of the offseason. OF COURSE DAYTON MOORE COULDN'T TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MAHOLM'S DESPERATION BECAUSE HE SIGNED VARGAS IN FUCKING NOVEMBER!
The bottom line is this: If Moore had any confidence in his ability to cultivate pitching prospects, he never would have felt compelled to hand out a four-year contract to a mediocre free agent. He wouldn't have wanted a pitcher like Vargas blocking the way for Sean Manaea, Miguel Almonte, Christian Binford or Jason Adam two years from now. And he sure as hell wouldn't have signed such a nondescript pitcher in November if he had any clue how to work the free agent market.
-Fire Dayton Moore
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Another rare defense of David Glass
A month ago, I penned this letter (sans pen) for David Glass, directed at disgruntled Royals fans.
Yesterday, Baseball America's Ben Badler released his 2013 International Spending By Team List. The Royals ranked No. 7. The Royals' spending total came in at $3.61 million, just ahead of the Mariners and less than $400,000 out of the fifth highest total.
The teams ahead of the Royals, in order, were the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, Red Sox and Astros. The Rangers and Cubs more than doubled the Royals' expenditures, but the Royals were within $1 million of the deep-pocketed Dodgers and every other team ahead of them.
Of course, none of these totals include money spent on Cuban or Asian players who are at least 23 years old and have played in a foreign league for at least three seasons. Such players would be Jose Abreu (White Sox), Alexander Guerrero (Dodgers) or Masahiro Tanaka (who signed with the Yankees after the calendar turned), for example.
So, on one hand, no, the Royals still aren't major players when it comes to international signings. Their biggest signing out of Cuba remains Noel Arguelles, who has not and never will live up to his five-year, $6.9 million contract. Their most noteworthy Japanese signing is a tie between Hideo Nomo, who posted an 18.69 ERA in the final 4.1 innings of his Major League career in 2008 with the Royals, and Darrell May, who isn't Japanese.
But on the other, the Royals are at least trying to compete with their peers in areas they're capable of competing.
It's no mistake the Rangers and Cubs both spent more than $8 million on international players last year. Look at the men running those franchises — Jon Daniels and Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer, respectively. The Rangers have been one of the most competitive teams in baseball the last handful of years and the Cubs are the sleeping giant of the National League with all the highly regarded prospects knocking on Wrigley Field's door.
There is talent to be had internationally and the Rangers and Cubs know it. The only catch is it's usually 16- or 17-year-old talent. So teams must go into the July 2 signing period knowing A) the players they sign are years from making a noticeable impact and B) a majority of them may not even make it to the states. But when and if it does, look out.
So here we have the Royals flexing a bit of muscle on the international market. It's not as sexy as signing the top Cuban or Asian players. But one signing from last July still stands out to me. The signing of 16-year-old Italian shortstop Marten Gasparini. MLB.com ranked him the No. 4 international prospect. He was generally regarded as the best prospect to come out of the fledgling developmental leagues of Europe.
Who knows what Gasparini will be five years from now — let alone this season — but at least the Royals are being bold in their own way. And they're doing it with the financial support of David Glass.
In addition to increasing team payroll to the neighborhood of $90 million for 2014, Glass has allowed his staff to go out and sign international talent more aggressively than most MLB teams and he hasn't let potential high school or college price tags prevent the team from pursuing players in the amateur draft.
I myself questioned the Hunter Dozier selection in the first round of the 2013 draft, but the Royals turned around and took Sean Manaea in the supplemental round and gave him $3.55 million — the most ever for a supplemental round pick.
Whether or not Glass has entrusted the right man to spend all his money remains highly questionable and the root of all potential problems for the Royals at this point. But I still don't get how Royals fans can continue to vilify Glass and question his monetary commitment to winning.
Considering the market the Royals play in and the lack of fan support even during a winning season in 2013, Glass has done his part. At this point, it's up to his right-hand man to put the right pieces on the 25-man roster as the offseason comes to a close and deliver the results in 2014 we've spent years anticipating.
-Fire Dayton Moore
Yesterday, Baseball America's Ben Badler released his 2013 International Spending By Team List. The Royals ranked No. 7. The Royals' spending total came in at $3.61 million, just ahead of the Mariners and less than $400,000 out of the fifth highest total.
The teams ahead of the Royals, in order, were the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, Red Sox and Astros. The Rangers and Cubs more than doubled the Royals' expenditures, but the Royals were within $1 million of the deep-pocketed Dodgers and every other team ahead of them.
Of course, none of these totals include money spent on Cuban or Asian players who are at least 23 years old and have played in a foreign league for at least three seasons. Such players would be Jose Abreu (White Sox), Alexander Guerrero (Dodgers) or Masahiro Tanaka (who signed with the Yankees after the calendar turned), for example.
So, on one hand, no, the Royals still aren't major players when it comes to international signings. Their biggest signing out of Cuba remains Noel Arguelles, who has not and never will live up to his five-year, $6.9 million contract. Their most noteworthy Japanese signing is a tie between Hideo Nomo, who posted an 18.69 ERA in the final 4.1 innings of his Major League career in 2008 with the Royals, and Darrell May, who isn't Japanese.
But on the other, the Royals are at least trying to compete with their peers in areas they're capable of competing.
It's no mistake the Rangers and Cubs both spent more than $8 million on international players last year. Look at the men running those franchises — Jon Daniels and Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer, respectively. The Rangers have been one of the most competitive teams in baseball the last handful of years and the Cubs are the sleeping giant of the National League with all the highly regarded prospects knocking on Wrigley Field's door.
There is talent to be had internationally and the Rangers and Cubs know it. The only catch is it's usually 16- or 17-year-old talent. So teams must go into the July 2 signing period knowing A) the players they sign are years from making a noticeable impact and B) a majority of them may not even make it to the states. But when and if it does, look out.
So here we have the Royals flexing a bit of muscle on the international market. It's not as sexy as signing the top Cuban or Asian players. But one signing from last July still stands out to me. The signing of 16-year-old Italian shortstop Marten Gasparini. MLB.com ranked him the No. 4 international prospect. He was generally regarded as the best prospect to come out of the fledgling developmental leagues of Europe.
Who knows what Gasparini will be five years from now — let alone this season — but at least the Royals are being bold in their own way. And they're doing it with the financial support of David Glass.
In addition to increasing team payroll to the neighborhood of $90 million for 2014, Glass has allowed his staff to go out and sign international talent more aggressively than most MLB teams and he hasn't let potential high school or college price tags prevent the team from pursuing players in the amateur draft.
I myself questioned the Hunter Dozier selection in the first round of the 2013 draft, but the Royals turned around and took Sean Manaea in the supplemental round and gave him $3.55 million — the most ever for a supplemental round pick.
Whether or not Glass has entrusted the right man to spend all his money remains highly questionable and the root of all potential problems for the Royals at this point. But I still don't get how Royals fans can continue to vilify Glass and question his monetary commitment to winning.
Considering the market the Royals play in and the lack of fan support even during a winning season in 2013, Glass has done his part. At this point, it's up to his right-hand man to put the right pieces on the 25-man roster as the offseason comes to a close and deliver the results in 2014 we've spent years anticipating.
-Fire Dayton Moore
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Well, that doesn't add up
Today, news broke that the Royals signed a left-handed pitcher. This pitcher has posted a 4.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP since 2009. This pitcher has produced 6.6 WAR since 2009. He did this over the course of 670.1 innings, going back and forth between a starting and long relief role. And the Royals signed this pitcher for $3.25 million in 2014 with a $1 million buyout for 2015, so $4.25 million, in all.
In November, the Royals signed a left-handed pitcher, too. That pitcher has posted a 4.07 ERA and 1.28 WHIP since 2009. That pitcher produced 7.5 WAR since 2009. He accomplished this over the course of 852.2 innings, exclusively as a starter — although two times pitching 150 innings or fewer in a season. The Royals gave this pitcher a four-year, $32 million contract — $8 million per season.
Odds are you already know who these pitchers are. If you don't, Pitcher A is 36-year-old Bruce Chen and Pitcher B is Jason Vargas, who turns 31 on Sunday. In the grand scheme, Vargas is by no means expensive and being five years younger than someone like Bruce Chen does translate into more money and more years. However, what doesn't add up is that Dayton Moore signed both pitchers over the course of the same offseason.
They're the same pitcher! And now the Royals have to burn two roster spots on redundancy. On a roster, might I remind you, that doesn't have a whole lot of wiggle room.
A Royals team that already includes James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Danny Duffy and Wade Davis in it's rotation, Luke Hochevar on the fringes and prospects like Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer on the horizon, does not need Jason Vargas AND Bruce Chen.
And on a Royals team that already has Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera, Louis Coleman, Francisley Bueno, Donnie Joseph, Chris Dwyer, the aforementioned Hochevar, AND just DFA'd Everett Teaford to make room on the 40-man for Carlos Peguero, where exactly does a swing man like Chen come in?
Going into this offseason, the Royals had three glaring needs and X amount of dollars to spend. The money aspect of that equation isn't privy to me or anyone reading this (unless...Hi Dayton! Thanks for reading!) but even the most casual fan could point out Kansas City's needs. Right field. Second base. Starting pitching. And if you wanted to get picky, a backup option at third base could also come in handy.
Enter Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante. Two holes filled at reasonable prices, even if Aoki only fills the RF hole for one season. Then Dayton Moore traded a surplus in David Lough for Danny Valencia, a terrific platoon option for Mike Moustakas, should the Royals choose to go that route. Here's where things get foggy.
Moore came out of the offseason gates signing Jason Vargas. Starting rotation fixed? It wouldn't have been my solution, but money-wise and numbers-wise, there didn't seem to be room for another outside option.
Then Moore trades for Carlos Peguero, because I guess five outfielders aren't enough, and has to DFA Teaford, signaling that the bullpen doesn't need any more help — especially in the lefty department. If it doesn't have a use for Teaford, who's posted a 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 63 strikeouts to 35 walks in parts of three seasons for the Royals, then surely the last thing Dayton Moore would go out and spend more money on is a lefty reliever. Right?
Wrong! Then Moore burns $4.25 million on Chen on Thursday.
For an organization that seem to fret over every $1 million it spends, it sure has a knack for throwing away millions of dollars on bit players, rather than using a lump sum of that money on a useful piece.
For example, while Dayton Moore was busy getting his ducks in a row for meaningless Peguero and Chen moves, the Brewers swooped in and signed Matt Garza to a team-friendly four-year, $50 million deal ($12.5 million per with millions in deferred money and multiple performance bonuses and a vesting option for a fifth year). Add up the $8 million Vargas is making this year and the $4.25 million Moore just guaranteed Chen and the Royals could have almost paid the first year of Garza's salary. And the team still has $24 million committed to Vargas after this year — a price tag Vargas will struggle to live up to. That would have paid more than half of the rest of Garza's deal.
With Garza, yes, there is injury risk involved, thus all the performance bonuses written into his deal with the Brewers. However, looking at the Royals rotation, wouldn't he be an ideal No. 2 behind Shields with small-market, No. 1 upside after Shields walks? Yes, he would and yes he does. Because Guthrie isn't a No. 2, not even in a small market. And he sure as hell isn't a No. 1 as we look toward 2015. As an added bonus, Garza wouldn't have cost the Royals a first round draft pick either.
I shouldn't be surprised. I knew this was coming. I knew Vargas wouldn't be the only head-scratcher acquisition this offseason and Moore didn't disappoint. Not only did he add Vargas, but he went on to acquire his doppelganger. Now the Royals must fit the following players onto their 25-man.
Pitchers: Bruce Chen, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Wade Davis, Danny Duffy, Chris Dwyer, Jeremy Guthrie, Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, Donnie Joseph, James Shields, Jason Vargas. Catchers: Brett Hayes, Francisco Pena, Salvador Perez. Infielders: Emilio Bonifacio, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Omar Infante, Mike Moustakas, Danny Valencia. Outfielders: Norichika Aoki, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Alex Gordon, Justin Maxwell, Carlos Peguero. DH: Billy Butler.
That's 30 names. Cutting one of the catchers out of the mix is the most obvious move, but that still leaves four more names to cut out. And I didn't even list Pedro Ciriaco or Johnny Giavotella. Dayton Moore has nickel and dimed his way into having too many bit players and too few horses in what is a make-or-break year.
With the benefit of hindsight, what would have been so difficult about approaching the offseason like this: Sign Bruce Chen right off the bat. Moore has his backend starter who can move to the bullpen when Yordano Ventura or Kyle Zimmer are ready. Done. Move on. Trade for Norichika Aoki. Sign Omar Infante. Trade for Danny Valencia. What is this? Oh my gosh, it's January and the market has stalled on Matt Garza/Ervin Santana/Ubaldo Jimenez? No way! Well I've got all this money I saved by not signing a fringe starting pitcher long-term. Oh, what the hell. Hey Garza/Santana/Jimenez, here's a four-year, $50 million offer. First one to say 'Yes' gets it!
Worst case scenario, Garza/Santana/Jimenez all pass and Moore still feels the need to sign a pitcher. Vargas or a pitcher of his caliber is still out there and might even take less money or fewer years out of desperation. There are always pitchers of Vargas' caliber available. Or Moore decides he doesn't need to sign another pitcher, saves that money, and trusts Ventura to round out the rotation, which he's more than capable of doing.
Look, Dayton Moore has made some good moves this offseason and not just by his standards. I have no complaints with the Aoki and Infante deals. I would like the Valencia deal more if I thought Ned Yost would take advantage of it. Chen isn't even a bad signing, but it wasn't necessary with Vargas already in place and a bullpen overflowing with arms.
The Peguero trade was useless, but maybe Moore owed the Mariners a favor and Teaford probably wasn't going to be much of a factor in 2014 regardless. But the Vargas deal still sticks out as a foolish move to rush out to make in November. And next November after the Royals fail to make the playoffs again while Matt Garza resurrects his career as a Brewer, maybe then Royals fans will rally to...
-Fire Dayton Moore
In November, the Royals signed a left-handed pitcher, too. That pitcher has posted a 4.07 ERA and 1.28 WHIP since 2009. That pitcher produced 7.5 WAR since 2009. He accomplished this over the course of 852.2 innings, exclusively as a starter — although two times pitching 150 innings or fewer in a season. The Royals gave this pitcher a four-year, $32 million contract — $8 million per season.
Odds are you already know who these pitchers are. If you don't, Pitcher A is 36-year-old Bruce Chen and Pitcher B is Jason Vargas, who turns 31 on Sunday. In the grand scheme, Vargas is by no means expensive and being five years younger than someone like Bruce Chen does translate into more money and more years. However, what doesn't add up is that Dayton Moore signed both pitchers over the course of the same offseason.
They're the same pitcher! And now the Royals have to burn two roster spots on redundancy. On a roster, might I remind you, that doesn't have a whole lot of wiggle room.
A Royals team that already includes James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Danny Duffy and Wade Davis in it's rotation, Luke Hochevar on the fringes and prospects like Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer on the horizon, does not need Jason Vargas AND Bruce Chen.
And on a Royals team that already has Greg Holland, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera, Louis Coleman, Francisley Bueno, Donnie Joseph, Chris Dwyer, the aforementioned Hochevar, AND just DFA'd Everett Teaford to make room on the 40-man for Carlos Peguero, where exactly does a swing man like Chen come in?
Going into this offseason, the Royals had three glaring needs and X amount of dollars to spend. The money aspect of that equation isn't privy to me or anyone reading this (unless...Hi Dayton! Thanks for reading!) but even the most casual fan could point out Kansas City's needs. Right field. Second base. Starting pitching. And if you wanted to get picky, a backup option at third base could also come in handy.
Enter Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante. Two holes filled at reasonable prices, even if Aoki only fills the RF hole for one season. Then Dayton Moore traded a surplus in David Lough for Danny Valencia, a terrific platoon option for Mike Moustakas, should the Royals choose to go that route. Here's where things get foggy.
Moore came out of the offseason gates signing Jason Vargas. Starting rotation fixed? It wouldn't have been my solution, but money-wise and numbers-wise, there didn't seem to be room for another outside option.
Then Moore trades for Carlos Peguero, because I guess five outfielders aren't enough, and has to DFA Teaford, signaling that the bullpen doesn't need any more help — especially in the lefty department. If it doesn't have a use for Teaford, who's posted a 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 63 strikeouts to 35 walks in parts of three seasons for the Royals, then surely the last thing Dayton Moore would go out and spend more money on is a lefty reliever. Right?
Wrong! Then Moore burns $4.25 million on Chen on Thursday.
For an organization that seem to fret over every $1 million it spends, it sure has a knack for throwing away millions of dollars on bit players, rather than using a lump sum of that money on a useful piece.
For example, while Dayton Moore was busy getting his ducks in a row for meaningless Peguero and Chen moves, the Brewers swooped in and signed Matt Garza to a team-friendly four-year, $50 million deal ($12.5 million per with millions in deferred money and multiple performance bonuses and a vesting option for a fifth year). Add up the $8 million Vargas is making this year and the $4.25 million Moore just guaranteed Chen and the Royals could have almost paid the first year of Garza's salary. And the team still has $24 million committed to Vargas after this year — a price tag Vargas will struggle to live up to. That would have paid more than half of the rest of Garza's deal.
With Garza, yes, there is injury risk involved, thus all the performance bonuses written into his deal with the Brewers. However, looking at the Royals rotation, wouldn't he be an ideal No. 2 behind Shields with small-market, No. 1 upside after Shields walks? Yes, he would and yes he does. Because Guthrie isn't a No. 2, not even in a small market. And he sure as hell isn't a No. 1 as we look toward 2015. As an added bonus, Garza wouldn't have cost the Royals a first round draft pick either.
I shouldn't be surprised. I knew this was coming. I knew Vargas wouldn't be the only head-scratcher acquisition this offseason and Moore didn't disappoint. Not only did he add Vargas, but he went on to acquire his doppelganger. Now the Royals must fit the following players onto their 25-man.
Pitchers: Bruce Chen, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Wade Davis, Danny Duffy, Chris Dwyer, Jeremy Guthrie, Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, Donnie Joseph, James Shields, Jason Vargas. Catchers: Brett Hayes, Francisco Pena, Salvador Perez. Infielders: Emilio Bonifacio, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Omar Infante, Mike Moustakas, Danny Valencia. Outfielders: Norichika Aoki, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Alex Gordon, Justin Maxwell, Carlos Peguero. DH: Billy Butler.
That's 30 names. Cutting one of the catchers out of the mix is the most obvious move, but that still leaves four more names to cut out. And I didn't even list Pedro Ciriaco or Johnny Giavotella. Dayton Moore has nickel and dimed his way into having too many bit players and too few horses in what is a make-or-break year.
With the benefit of hindsight, what would have been so difficult about approaching the offseason like this: Sign Bruce Chen right off the bat. Moore has his backend starter who can move to the bullpen when Yordano Ventura or Kyle Zimmer are ready. Done. Move on. Trade for Norichika Aoki. Sign Omar Infante. Trade for Danny Valencia. What is this? Oh my gosh, it's January and the market has stalled on Matt Garza/Ervin Santana/Ubaldo Jimenez? No way! Well I've got all this money I saved by not signing a fringe starting pitcher long-term. Oh, what the hell. Hey Garza/Santana/Jimenez, here's a four-year, $50 million offer. First one to say 'Yes' gets it!
Worst case scenario, Garza/Santana/Jimenez all pass and Moore still feels the need to sign a pitcher. Vargas or a pitcher of his caliber is still out there and might even take less money or fewer years out of desperation. There are always pitchers of Vargas' caliber available. Or Moore decides he doesn't need to sign another pitcher, saves that money, and trusts Ventura to round out the rotation, which he's more than capable of doing.
Look, Dayton Moore has made some good moves this offseason and not just by his standards. I have no complaints with the Aoki and Infante deals. I would like the Valencia deal more if I thought Ned Yost would take advantage of it. Chen isn't even a bad signing, but it wasn't necessary with Vargas already in place and a bullpen overflowing with arms.
The Peguero trade was useless, but maybe Moore owed the Mariners a favor and Teaford probably wasn't going to be much of a factor in 2014 regardless. But the Vargas deal still sticks out as a foolish move to rush out to make in November. And next November after the Royals fail to make the playoffs again while Matt Garza resurrects his career as a Brewer, maybe then Royals fans will rally to...
-Fire Dayton Moore
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
An Open Letter to Royals Fans (not from David Glass but kinda)
Today another Royals blog issued an open letter to David Glass. You can read it here. All I will say about it is: A) It is overtly pie-in-the-sky (I mean, it entertained the notion that Glass could actually make the Wil Myers trade less questionable) yet B) it probably echoes the thoughts of a majority of Royals fans.
I'm not trying to start an internet feud with another Royals blog but seeing how Glass isn't likely to issue a response to this letter, I guess I might as well draft one for him.
Dear Kansas City Royals fans,
I actually do know all of you. Our new ticketing system logs your finger prints as you enter the stadium and we've developed a surveillance system that performs retina scans through your televisions as you watch games from home. (I like what you've done with your "Man Cave," Chuck!)
First of all, I resent you accusing me of attempting to turn the Royals into a "personal ATM." Perhaps you meant "human ATMs." I may or may not have sent Chris Getz to make a deposit here or there for me, but that's none of your business. And I'm neither confirming nor denying that I have asked players promoted from Double A Northwest Arkansas to Triple A Omaha to make withdrawals for me at my bank in Northwest Arkansas and drop the cash off at the Royals offices before they head to Omaha. And I'm certainly not verifying speculation that one of those players was one Johnny Giavotella and, in a show of appreciation for such a favor, I allowed him to appear in 113 career MLB games. I'm not.
However, what I am doing is pointing out my unquestionable investment in putting a winning product on the field at Kauffman Stadium (even though the stadium itself does nothing but steal homers and walks from the very players who call it home). You'll notice in 2012, I spent nearly $61 million on payroll. Only the Astros, Athletics and Padres spent less. But in 2013, I sold a few summer homes, turned in the keys to several cars I was leasing and did some things I'm not proud of to allow myself to up my team's payroll to nearly $81.5 million. I didn't attend no fancy Ivy League school but that's nearly a 34 percent increase in team salary. That placed the Royals 19th in payroll in all of baseball and less than $2 million away from Milwaukee at No. 18.
Did any of that sink in? KANSAS FREAKING CITY was almost in the top half of baseball in spending last year! And how did you "loyal" fans repay me? By having the fifth worst attendance in the game. Barely over 20,000 a game. Pitiful. Minnesota averaged just under 10,000 more fans and the Twins were the third worst team in the league. The White Sox were even worse and averaged more fans per game. The Angels and Phillies were dumpster fires last season and both had more than 15,000 more fans per game. Please, tell me again about how looooooooooooooyal you Royals fans are.
I spent more than FOUR owners who saw their teams reach the playoffs last season: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile the Houston Astros paid their players in Texas-themed belt buckles and became the most profitable MLB team in history. As much as you seem to think it would benefit me to spend and spend on this team, it doesn't. I'd make far more money by cutting payroll 34 percent.
And I put all that money into the team despite ranking 29th on Forbes' list of most valuable MLB franchises last year. (Gee, I bet the team would be worth more if a prospective buyer knew they were buying a team that could record sell-outs on days besides Opening Day and when the Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals are in town.)
I can't say for sure where our payroll will stack up this season, but with the signings of Jason Vargas and Omar Infante and trades for Norichika Aoki and Danny Valencia, it should go without saying I'm not backing off my commitment to this franchise and our quest to reach the playoffs for the first time since 1985.
I get it. The Royals have been the butt of countless jokes and you've remained loyal and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Know what other franchise hasn't won in forever? The Chicago Cubs. Not only are they known as the "lovable losers" but now they have a mascot more lovable than ours! If anything, we should try to see just how long our playoff futility can last and knock those highfalutin Cubs off their pedestal!!!
Face it. You live in Kansas City. What else are you gonna do? Go to the Zoo every weekend? Become regulars out at The Legends? Be a good husband and finally take your wife to the New Theater Restaurant? The Royals are the only show in town in the summer, bud, and the only one who can tell me how much to spend on them is, well, me.
Truth is, I think we can win as currently constructed. I think we will win as currently constructed. But Ervin Santana isn't going to turn us into World Series contenders. So why spend the money?
As for Masahiro Tanaka? Are you serious? Sure, I could afford the $20 million posting fee but the Yankees and Dodgers and maybe the Angels, Cubs or Rangers are all fully capable of offering more than $100 million for him on top of that. One report said his price tag could near $150 million. And even if I could scrape together that much dough, I'd still have to convince him to want to play in Kansas City. Do you realize Tanaka would have to have an insatiable desire — no, fetish — for BBQ to place Kansas City atop his list of teams to pitch for?
As for extending Shields, the timing isn't right. If this team blows up in my face, afterall, I'll probably be instructing my GM to trade Shields in July, don't ya think? If anything, I might be able to splurge for Santana on a one-year deal, but don't expect much more before Opening Day.
The way I see it, we have MVP-caliber players at catcher and first base. We have a competent, full-time second baseman for the first time since 2009. (Thanks for finally noticing Dayton!) Our third baseman has a capable backup and if he doesn't get his ass in gear he'll soon find himself serving as the backup. Our shortstop won't be able to hit himself out of a wet pair of edible underwear but he's going to field more smoothly than a silk brassiere. Our left fielder is one of the most complete left fielders in the game. Center field is a bit of a weakness, but it shouldn't be a hindrance if we can avoid major injuries. And...let me check...yes, our right fielder is no longer Jeff Francoeur so we're set there, too. And our bullpen will be one of the best and deepest in baseball again.
As for the rotation, we have a proven frontline starter in James Shields. Our 2-4 leave a lot to be desired and our fifth starter has no business being a starter — nor does his top competitor for that spot (hint: he was a No. 1 pick that I regret even more than the Myers trade and, yes, Dayton Moore was responsible for that draft pick). But in reality, those guys are just placeholders for when Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer are ready to join the big league club. Why spend millions of dollars to fill holes we can fill internally?
Given our incremental improvements and the Detroit Tigers' incremental setbacks, the Royals can compete in the American League Central in 2014. Even if we don't win the division, the Cleveland Indians made the playoffs last year with a rotation of Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister. I already think the 2014 Royals are a more complete team than the 2013 Indians and they've done little to improve this offseason.
In reality, the Red Sox and Rays are going to take two playoff spots. The Athletics or Rangers will win the AL West. So that means we either have to beat the Tigers outright and take the division or feast on an easier division and finish with a better record than the No. 2 team out of the West. Simple as that.
If a bold move is needed in July, I'll open the checkbook again. But that's contingent on the team Dayton Moore has constructed competing the first three months of the season.
If you don't like that, maybe you should have expressed more outrage over me hiring and sticking with a GM who's now in YEAR EIGHT without a playoff appearance. If you don't like that, maybe you should have protested a little louder when I allowed our GM to ship off our best hitting prospect at a position of immediate need for a two-year rental pitcher when there were numerous free agents I would have gladly paid for instead. If you don't like that, maybe the twitter account Fire Dayton Moore should have more than 90 fucking followers! If you don't like that, maybe more than 44 people should have signed their fucking petition to have Dayton Moore fired!
If there are soooooooooooooooooooooooo many passionate Royals fans out there, as you claim there are, then the man most responsible for where the Royals have been the last eight seasons should be held responsible — if not by me, then by you. I've put up the money. I'll continue to put up the money until I either die or sell the team.
But the Pirates, Indians, Athletics and Rays proved last season it's not all about the money. It's about putting the right pieces in place. I'm not qualified to put those pieces in place. So don't blame me for that. If you want to blame me for choosing the wrong man to assemble those pieces and if you want to blame me for keeping this man under my employ for too long, then you have a point. Until then, keep your open letters to yourself.
Sincerely,
(not) David Glass
P.S. If you want to blame me for hiring a man who supposedly appeared in a film called "Mayor Cupcake," that might trump my entire catalogue of missteps.
I'm not trying to start an internet feud with another Royals blog but seeing how Glass isn't likely to issue a response to this letter, I guess I might as well draft one for him.
Dear Kansas City Royals fans,
I actually do know all of you. Our new ticketing system logs your finger prints as you enter the stadium and we've developed a surveillance system that performs retina scans through your televisions as you watch games from home. (I like what you've done with your "Man Cave," Chuck!)
First of all, I resent you accusing me of attempting to turn the Royals into a "personal ATM." Perhaps you meant "human ATMs." I may or may not have sent Chris Getz to make a deposit here or there for me, but that's none of your business. And I'm neither confirming nor denying that I have asked players promoted from Double A Northwest Arkansas to Triple A Omaha to make withdrawals for me at my bank in Northwest Arkansas and drop the cash off at the Royals offices before they head to Omaha. And I'm certainly not verifying speculation that one of those players was one Johnny Giavotella and, in a show of appreciation for such a favor, I allowed him to appear in 113 career MLB games. I'm not.
However, what I am doing is pointing out my unquestionable investment in putting a winning product on the field at Kauffman Stadium (even though the stadium itself does nothing but steal homers and walks from the very players who call it home). You'll notice in 2012, I spent nearly $61 million on payroll. Only the Astros, Athletics and Padres spent less. But in 2013, I sold a few summer homes, turned in the keys to several cars I was leasing and did some things I'm not proud of to allow myself to up my team's payroll to nearly $81.5 million. I didn't attend no fancy Ivy League school but that's nearly a 34 percent increase in team salary. That placed the Royals 19th in payroll in all of baseball and less than $2 million away from Milwaukee at No. 18.
Did any of that sink in? KANSAS FREAKING CITY was almost in the top half of baseball in spending last year! And how did you "loyal" fans repay me? By having the fifth worst attendance in the game. Barely over 20,000 a game. Pitiful. Minnesota averaged just under 10,000 more fans and the Twins were the third worst team in the league. The White Sox were even worse and averaged more fans per game. The Angels and Phillies were dumpster fires last season and both had more than 15,000 more fans per game. Please, tell me again about how looooooooooooooyal you Royals fans are.
I spent more than FOUR owners who saw their teams reach the playoffs last season: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile the Houston Astros paid their players in Texas-themed belt buckles and became the most profitable MLB team in history. As much as you seem to think it would benefit me to spend and spend on this team, it doesn't. I'd make far more money by cutting payroll 34 percent.
And I put all that money into the team despite ranking 29th on Forbes' list of most valuable MLB franchises last year. (Gee, I bet the team would be worth more if a prospective buyer knew they were buying a team that could record sell-outs on days besides Opening Day and when the Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals are in town.)
I can't say for sure where our payroll will stack up this season, but with the signings of Jason Vargas and Omar Infante and trades for Norichika Aoki and Danny Valencia, it should go without saying I'm not backing off my commitment to this franchise and our quest to reach the playoffs for the first time since 1985.
I get it. The Royals have been the butt of countless jokes and you've remained loyal and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Know what other franchise hasn't won in forever? The Chicago Cubs. Not only are they known as the "lovable losers" but now they have a mascot more lovable than ours! If anything, we should try to see just how long our playoff futility can last and knock those highfalutin Cubs off their pedestal!!!
Face it. You live in Kansas City. What else are you gonna do? Go to the Zoo every weekend? Become regulars out at The Legends? Be a good husband and finally take your wife to the New Theater Restaurant? The Royals are the only show in town in the summer, bud, and the only one who can tell me how much to spend on them is, well, me.
Truth is, I think we can win as currently constructed. I think we will win as currently constructed. But Ervin Santana isn't going to turn us into World Series contenders. So why spend the money?
As for Masahiro Tanaka? Are you serious? Sure, I could afford the $20 million posting fee but the Yankees and Dodgers and maybe the Angels, Cubs or Rangers are all fully capable of offering more than $100 million for him on top of that. One report said his price tag could near $150 million. And even if I could scrape together that much dough, I'd still have to convince him to want to play in Kansas City. Do you realize Tanaka would have to have an insatiable desire — no, fetish — for BBQ to place Kansas City atop his list of teams to pitch for?
As for extending Shields, the timing isn't right. If this team blows up in my face, afterall, I'll probably be instructing my GM to trade Shields in July, don't ya think? If anything, I might be able to splurge for Santana on a one-year deal, but don't expect much more before Opening Day.
The way I see it, we have MVP-caliber players at catcher and first base. We have a competent, full-time second baseman for the first time since 2009. (Thanks for finally noticing Dayton!) Our third baseman has a capable backup and if he doesn't get his ass in gear he'll soon find himself serving as the backup. Our shortstop won't be able to hit himself out of a wet pair of edible underwear but he's going to field more smoothly than a silk brassiere. Our left fielder is one of the most complete left fielders in the game. Center field is a bit of a weakness, but it shouldn't be a hindrance if we can avoid major injuries. And...let me check...yes, our right fielder is no longer Jeff Francoeur so we're set there, too. And our bullpen will be one of the best and deepest in baseball again.
As for the rotation, we have a proven frontline starter in James Shields. Our 2-4 leave a lot to be desired and our fifth starter has no business being a starter — nor does his top competitor for that spot (hint: he was a No. 1 pick that I regret even more than the Myers trade and, yes, Dayton Moore was responsible for that draft pick). But in reality, those guys are just placeholders for when Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer are ready to join the big league club. Why spend millions of dollars to fill holes we can fill internally?
Given our incremental improvements and the Detroit Tigers' incremental setbacks, the Royals can compete in the American League Central in 2014. Even if we don't win the division, the Cleveland Indians made the playoffs last year with a rotation of Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister. I already think the 2014 Royals are a more complete team than the 2013 Indians and they've done little to improve this offseason.
In reality, the Red Sox and Rays are going to take two playoff spots. The Athletics or Rangers will win the AL West. So that means we either have to beat the Tigers outright and take the division or feast on an easier division and finish with a better record than the No. 2 team out of the West. Simple as that.
If a bold move is needed in July, I'll open the checkbook again. But that's contingent on the team Dayton Moore has constructed competing the first three months of the season.
If you don't like that, maybe you should have expressed more outrage over me hiring and sticking with a GM who's now in YEAR EIGHT without a playoff appearance. If you don't like that, maybe you should have protested a little louder when I allowed our GM to ship off our best hitting prospect at a position of immediate need for a two-year rental pitcher when there were numerous free agents I would have gladly paid for instead. If you don't like that, maybe the twitter account Fire Dayton Moore should have more than 90 fucking followers! If you don't like that, maybe more than 44 people should have signed their fucking petition to have Dayton Moore fired!
If there are soooooooooooooooooooooooo many passionate Royals fans out there, as you claim there are, then the man most responsible for where the Royals have been the last eight seasons should be held responsible — if not by me, then by you. I've put up the money. I'll continue to put up the money until I either die or sell the team.
But the Pirates, Indians, Athletics and Rays proved last season it's not all about the money. It's about putting the right pieces in place. I'm not qualified to put those pieces in place. So don't blame me for that. If you want to blame me for choosing the wrong man to assemble those pieces and if you want to blame me for keeping this man under my employ for too long, then you have a point. Until then, keep your open letters to yourself.
Sincerely,
(not) David Glass
P.S. If you want to blame me for hiring a man who supposedly appeared in a film called "Mayor Cupcake," that might trump my entire catalogue of missteps.
-Fire Dayton Moore
Monday, January 13, 2014
Every silver lining has a cloud
Maybe it's because I'm from the Midwest. Maybe it's because I'm a Kansas City sports fan. Maybe it's because I have a mental illness (most likely). Regardless, whenever things are going well, I brace for detonation. I assume it's all about to blow up in my face.
Oh, you're starting to have feelings for that girl? Wait for it. She's even crazier than you and has actually been stock-piling things you do that annoy her like a survivalist hoarding canned goods and she's about to tell you about them all. Oh, you left with time to spare for that job interview? Wait for it. Traffic is going to be backed up for no reason and everyone else on the road is going to drive like zombies with nowhere to be but in your way. Oh, that Pad Thai tasted as good as any you've ever had? Wait for it. That chicken wasn't fully cooked.
I don't wish this worldview on anyone, but mine probably isn't going to change without professional help any time soon. Which leads me to the Royals offseason.
To this point, my biggest complaint was throwing a 4-year, $32 million contract in the direction of Jason Vargas before the offseason had seemingly even begun (Nov. 21 to be exact). Other than that, Dayton Moore has pretty much proven capable of running a Major League team.
Then today reports surfaced that had observers singing Moore's praises as being "ahead of the curve." The reports were that Dayton Moore and the Royals created $3 million in payroll space for the 2014 season by restructuring Jeremy Guthrie's contract.
Instead of making $11 million in 2014, Guthrie will make the same $8 million Vargas will make. In return, the Royals and Guthrie have a mutual option for 2016 worth $10 million and if the Royals decide to decline, there's a $3.2 million buyout. In other words, when the Royals decide not to bring Guthrie back after 2015, he will have earned $200,000 "interest" on the $3 million he forfeited this year.
Yes, on the surface, this looks like an incredible windfall for Moore and the Royals.
"Yay, the Royals have a whopping extra $3 million to spend on free agency! Surely that will bridge the gap to bringing back Ervin Santana!!!"
I'm sure these are the inner thoughts of the average Royals fan. However, the deeper I dig, the more skeptical I become. Here's why:
When it comes down to it, there were probably too many words written or spoken about Guthrie restructuring his deal compared to what will result from it. Most likely, Royals fans have already witnessed the fruits from Guthrie's generosity. I suspect it might have been crucial to the Infante signing, so for that, Guthrie is to be commended.
But as far as I can tell, unless a handful of Guthrie's teammates step forward and make a similar gesture, the Royals' next big move isn't going down until July, if even then. And if that disappoints you, be careful what you wish for. Moore could still sign Kendrys Morales and suddenly you'll find yourself looking at a team with two designated hitters that nobody else wants.
A Dayton Moore bomb is going off. It's just a matter of time.
-Fire Dayton Moore
Oh, you're starting to have feelings for that girl? Wait for it. She's even crazier than you and has actually been stock-piling things you do that annoy her like a survivalist hoarding canned goods and she's about to tell you about them all. Oh, you left with time to spare for that job interview? Wait for it. Traffic is going to be backed up for no reason and everyone else on the road is going to drive like zombies with nowhere to be but in your way. Oh, that Pad Thai tasted as good as any you've ever had? Wait for it. That chicken wasn't fully cooked.
I don't wish this worldview on anyone, but mine probably isn't going to change without professional help any time soon. Which leads me to the Royals offseason.
To this point, my biggest complaint was throwing a 4-year, $32 million contract in the direction of Jason Vargas before the offseason had seemingly even begun (Nov. 21 to be exact). Other than that, Dayton Moore has pretty much proven capable of running a Major League team.
Then today reports surfaced that had observers singing Moore's praises as being "ahead of the curve." The reports were that Dayton Moore and the Royals created $3 million in payroll space for the 2014 season by restructuring Jeremy Guthrie's contract.
Instead of making $11 million in 2014, Guthrie will make the same $8 million Vargas will make. In return, the Royals and Guthrie have a mutual option for 2016 worth $10 million and if the Royals decide to decline, there's a $3.2 million buyout. In other words, when the Royals decide not to bring Guthrie back after 2015, he will have earned $200,000 "interest" on the $3 million he forfeited this year.
Yes, on the surface, this looks like an incredible windfall for Moore and the Royals.
"Yay, the Royals have a whopping extra $3 million to spend on free agency! Surely that will bridge the gap to bringing back Ervin Santana!!!"
I'm sure these are the inner thoughts of the average Royals fan. However, the deeper I dig, the more skeptical I become. Here's why:
- Moore stated Guthrie agreed to restructure back in November. He didn't offer an exact day, but it stands to reason it was before the Vagas deal.
So if we continue under that assumption, why the hell did the Royals bother signing Vargas if they knew they had an extra $3 million to play with? They could have brought in Scott Feldman instead for the 3-year, $30 million deal the Astros gave him and acquired a more complete and capable pitcher with a shorter commitment.
Or the Royals could have passed on the likes of Vargas and Feldman altogether and saved those theoretical $11 million (from Guthrie and Vargas) and used it as the base for an offer to Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez or Matt Garza.
In short, for Moore to enter the offseason knowing he had $3 million coming off Guthrie's deal and still make Vargas his first acquisition makes even less sense than it did at the time. And to be clear, it made no sense to sign a pitcher of Vargas' caliber in November. - There is no guarantee Moore spends this money wisely.
It can easily be argued Moore has already misspent the $32 million he committed to Vargas. I'm not going to speculate as to who Moore might be targeting as Spring Training approaches. For all we know, he's combing the Dominican Summer Leagues for the next Miguel Tejada. And there's no guarantee such a signing would work out so well this time around.
But looking at the roster and non-roster Spring Training invites, the Royals are set at catcher and around the infield. I'm not in love with an outfield of Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Norichika Aoki with Justin Maxwell coming off the bench, but it's hard to imagine upgrading from that foursome at this point. Giancarlo Stanton ain't walking through that door.
The bullpen is probably still overstocked, so there shouldn't be any new developments there unless it has to do with shipping someone out. So that leaves...drumroll...upgrading a starting rotation that still includes Wade Davis.
With the payroll now reported to be a little below $90 million, though, unless ownership is willing to approach or surpass $100 million, that $3 million is merely a fraction of what it would cost to bring in a difference-making arm.
If anything, that $3 million will only grease the wheels in a Kendrys Morales deal that would make no sense.*
*If you follow us on twitter (@FireDaytonMoore) maybe you've seen my take on the Morales rumors already. If not, well, I think signing Morales would be one of the most foolish things Moore has ever done as Royals GM. First, it would cost the Royals their first round draft pick in 2014. Secondly, and most obviously, the team already has an accomplished DH in Billy Butler. Third, while it might sound ideal to be able to sign Morales and turn around and trade Butler for an impact starting pitcher, I would just like to know what team that needs a DH is going to ignore Morales' presence but fall over itself to trade anything of value for Butler (who has a $12.5 million option for 2015 and then becomes a free agent). No team, that's what.
What worries me most about Morales is I've seen the reports that have listed the Royals as a team seriously pursuing him. And if there's one thing about Dayton Moore, it's that where there's smoke, there's usually fire. There were whispers about the Wil Myers-for-James Shields deal long before it went down. And no matter how asinine a move might seem to the average observer, Moore is still fully capable of pulling the trigger. See: Jeff Francoeur, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jonathan Sanchez.
So believe it or not, this payroll relief could do more harm than good. - Finally, there's no guarantee Moore is going to sign anyone.
In all likelihood, he's already made the moves he wanted to make with this salary flexibility. The Vargas and Omar Infante signings both came after the agreement with Guthrie. So did the Aoki and Danny Valencia trades.
As boring as it might sound, perhaps that $3 million simply allows the Royals to retain the services of Emilio Bonifacio, who some thought might be moved to free up a spot on the 25-man roster.**
**If the Royals elect to go with 13 pitchers, it's going to be a tight fit filling out the other 12 spots and that's even when you assume Jarrod Dyson is out of the outfield mix. Personally, if there's any team that would benefit from having 13 position players, I think it's the Royals. And, personally, if there's any team that could get by with 12 pitchers, I think it could be the Royals. At least until Davis' first start of the season.
When it comes down to it, there were probably too many words written or spoken about Guthrie restructuring his deal compared to what will result from it. Most likely, Royals fans have already witnessed the fruits from Guthrie's generosity. I suspect it might have been crucial to the Infante signing, so for that, Guthrie is to be commended.
But as far as I can tell, unless a handful of Guthrie's teammates step forward and make a similar gesture, the Royals' next big move isn't going down until July, if even then. And if that disappoints you, be careful what you wish for. Moore could still sign Kendrys Morales and suddenly you'll find yourself looking at a team with two designated hitters that nobody else wants.
A Dayton Moore bomb is going off. It's just a matter of time.
-Fire Dayton Moore
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